Just one reason I’ve never feared the Chi-Coms, they haven’t the heavy lift capabilities to invade the U.S.
Not enough to invade an island right off their coast much less half a world away.
“Amateurs talk about strategy, dilettantes talk about tactics, and professionals talk about logistics.”
The question since 1949 concerning Mainland China invading Taiwan has always been:
“Can The Dragon Swim?”
This article seems to answer with
“Yes, but not for very long.”
It’s not as if China were not trying to close the gap between the petroleum supply they have and the stocks they want to have.
They are stockpiling right now. More than that, they are eying the possibility of simply absorbing a few locations into their hegemony, giving them the necessary supply lines to mount and continue a protracted conflict.
If the US leaves the Persian gulf, China will fill the vacuum. One more reason to stay in Iraq long beyond the end of the Bush Administration in early 2009.
Like China wouldn't close all the America-driven Walmart & Nike factories if it really needed the fuel.
Why do you think China is courting Iran and Venezuela.
We can monitor tanker traffic and imports, but we probably can’t definitively gage bio-fuels.
They could do it the old-fashioned way. How long would it take to conquer Indonesia?
The world should not have had to face China for another twenty to fifty years, but with the aid of the clintoons, I suspect China has mobilized, and continues preparations for the end game. The end game plan....I know not what China's end game is, but I suspect China has a plan for their planned end game. Most all nuclear nations do plan, for all foreseen end games. The next ten years will bring many surprises.
I will hope for manageable surprises only, from China. But again, China holds the dragon's lair. I pray the Eagle is up to the task, but should a clintoon, an obama, a richardson, an edwards, a biden, or a host of others, arrive in the White House in January, one year from now, the dragon will continue to reap the benefits, and maneuver a continuation of a One China policy.
It’s a nice calculation, but pointless IMO. First, Taiwan is not that far from mainland (100-150 miles,) with half of the island wide open. Why to even talk about 6,000 km ranges if you need only to take off, wait a few minutes, drop the bombs and return? If long range bombers are used, they will carry 5 tons of fuel and extra 40 tons of bombs. Same with fighters - they’d be able to stay over the island until they run out of ammo, no need for a 1,000 km trip to the battle area.
Other posters already mentioned that if needed Chinese rulers will deny fuel to civilian sector, without any second thought. But far more important is that China is highly unlikely to start the war - it makes little sense, costs a lot, and will likely destroy Taiwan’s industry. As I see it, Taiwan and China will eventually peacefully unify just because both will change over time. It is already happening.
The assumption is that they openly publish all their real data
One of my son’s roommates at VMI is from Taiwan and will head back after graduation to serve in the Taiwanese army. He’s here visiting with us now and we were just talking about this the other night. I’ll print it out and give it to him. Thanks!
Iran has likely dedicated its national export oil production to China's use in exchange for nukes,via North Korea.
Just set a few satellite passes dedicated to ground penetrating radar scans looking for enoromous storage tanks and there you will find the answer.
The Chinese are too meticulous to let oil supply slow them down. They have all they need to invade Taiwan.
This assumes much about mainland tactics. Logistics is the awareness of obstacles and the planning to operationally overcome those obstacles.
In this scenario, perhaps the execution would be an unconventional attack. To have enough forces in the major cities to make them impossible to remove, by the US, without destroying those cities.
In such circumstances, long before hostilities, they would infiltrate an extraordinary number of fifth columnists, using commercial travel. Such people would be tasked with becoming part of the civilian infrastructure of Taiwan. This could take years.
Perhaps a military invasion would be designed to be stealthy, tasking as little as a brigade for each major city. Most likely by using cargo ships instead of military transports. Their purpose would mostly be “insurance”, if the fifth column needed support.
The idea would be to have “an invasion without invading”, perhaps with the complicity of a Taiwanese political party and several large corporations.
The only real obstacle would be the command of the Taiwanese military. Optimally, the military would be ordered to stand down by the civilian leadership.
From that point, the two things the “new” government would need to insure was that as far as the public was concerned, it was business as usual, like Hong Kong; and that there was going to be no “real” invasion, with mainland troops destroying things.
They might even sweeten the deal with a whole slew of “aid” coming from the mainland. Essentially trade and travel deals to open the doors wide to a friendly reunion. No threats of punishment to anyone, as well.
It would also need a major diplomatic initiative around the world, to let everyone know that the “peaceful reintegration” of China had taken place, and any foreign actions would be seen as “unprovoked, aggressive war” against China.
Another reason for us to be drilling in ANWAR, the Caribbean, the Gulf, and off the Coast of California. Also, build a lot more refineries.