Rassmussen is a four day rolling average poll with a 95% probablility that the true value is within plus or minus five percent of the reported value.
It is useful for spotting trends. We can also say with certainty that nationally all these candidates are even and that Giuliani and Huckabee are on discint downward trajectories. McCain is on a possible upward trajectories and Thompson and Romney are holding steady within the margin of error.
As of today. Wait until tomorrow and the situation can change. All that can be said for sure is that the Huckaboom has become the Huckabust and that John McCain has been the immediate beneficiary of international uncertainty.
I'm amazed that John McCain becomes the beneficiary of international uncertainty when he wants to prohibit the technique that led the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks to confess. The international uncertainty is another reason why I don't want John McCain to be president. The candidate who should benefit from international uncertainty is Duncan Hunter, but he's not even on the radar screen. Fred Thompson's comment about "who do you want sitting across the table from our enemies" will also be effective because he projects that image to the voters. I wish more of our political process were about substance and not projected images. I keep wanting to turn his statement into a joke about him sitting across the table taking a nap, but I think his approach will help him win undecided voters. Ultimately, the important people who sit across the table are the team members that the president selects, and Mitt Romney has a better record for building teams. Fred Thompson can argue that Mitt Romney has never built a team to handle international conflicts, but Fred Thompson hasn't either.
Bill
I actually think the McCain swing had started before the assassination. The talking heads are saying McCain benefits from the situation in Pakistan, but to me it sounds like those daily after-the-fact explanations of buys and sell-offs in the stock market: just so much explanation.
McCain is clearly the comfortable alternative in NH, where he has been embraced in the past and has ties to the GOP establishment. Otherwise I think voters are hovering over McCain only unless or until Fred shows viability in Iowa.