Her negatives in Iowa are at least 50%. No one will report more than 45%.
Say Hillary, Osama, Edwards get their 30%, 28%, 26%. Anyone whose candidate does not get 15%, then votes again.
On the second vote, it seems, everyone will vote for someone other than Hillary. No one who didn't vote for her the first time will vote for her on the second ballot. Osama and Edwards get all the second votes.
The Toon comes in 3rd.
yitbos