Should be an easy flip.
Prior to redistricting, Texas 22 was a safe district at 62% republican.
Delay needed some of those GOP voters in another district and 22 is now 52% republican, which was not a problem as long a Delay was the GOP candidate.
This doesn't mean that another GOP candidate can't win the district, it will just be more expensive. The dems are well funded and will be throwing lots of money at Delay's and Bonilla's old seats.