Posted on 01/08/2008 4:48:27 PM PST by mdittmar
Just when you think you know how the game is played, someone always changes the rules. This years Republican primary season seems ready to challenge one of the oldest and most reliable rules of Republican primaries, the one that says that the most conservative candidate usually wins.
After I was taught this rule by some wise senior consultants, for years I sought out exceptions in order to prove that it couldnt be that simple. Surely the factors determining the outcome of a primary would be more complex than mere ideology of the contestants, I reasoned. But after several decades of active skepticism I am convinced that this rule is pretty much immutable, and at least as accurate as the typical TV news weathercast.
The best I have been able to do in refining the rule is add a slight modification of the principle. I now articulate the rule like this: The most right-leaning legitimate conservative usually wins. This slight reformulation adds a necessary hedge to the proposition, diminishing the prospects of illegitimate candidates.
There are at least two categories of candidates that merit the illegitimate label. Right-wing fringe candidates and nut-jobs, no matter how conservative, dont get the guaranteed win. This explains how a Pat Buchanan could never succeed in his presidential bids against clearly more moderate opponents. Buchanan went outside the boundaries of legitimate conservative orthodoxy.
The second type of illegitimate contender is one who simply doesnt raise enough money to have the capacity to adequately tell enough voters his story. Some may feel its a sad state of affairs when an otherwise solid conservative candidate is deemed illegitimate simply because he cannot raise enough money to tell his story, but thats the way it is. The ability to raise money is one crucial element of demonstrating legitimacy. For example, in the current field, Rep. Duncan Hunter (Calif.) is undeniably a solid conservative whose views are mostly in line with conservative orthodoxy. But because he cannot raise sufficient funds to compete, he trails even more oddball candidates like Rep. Ron Paul (Texas).
So how is the rule working this time? Is the most conservative legitimate candidate winning? I dont think so. Going by everything I know, Fred Thompson is undeniably the most consistent conservative in the field. And while he has shown some progress lately, finishing third in Iowas caucuses, his overall prognosis, judging from polls, is not encouraging.
Why isnt the conservative stalwart performing better? Some would blame Thompsons reserved style of campaigning, I dont think this is a valid criticism. Thompson has campaigned at least as hard as some of the Republicans polling ahead of him. I believe that hes campaigned long and hard enough that if you asked Republican primary voters to say whose views are most conservative of the front-runners Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, John McCain or Thompson 70 percent or more would say Thompson. Really, his only competition for the conservative mantle is Romney, and the former Massachusetts governor gets criticized often for flip-flops on conservative litmus-test issues.
There may be idiosyncratic explanations for why the rule isnt working in the current presidential primary cycle. For example, many conservative Republicans may so admire John McCains well-documented service to the nation that they overlook his more moderate positions on a variety of issues. Other conservatives may be so focused on having a president who will get harsh with militant Islamic terrorists that they are persuaded by Giulianis tough-guy image.
The more ominous explanation, at least for conservatism, is that party members have changed.
Republicans, as a whole, are not as conservative as they once were. Research results I am seeing suggest to me that this is key to why the rules are changing. Conservatives no longer benefit from the domination they once enjoyed.
Dang double click...got to replace this mouse......
No, it should be posted twice! LOL
If Fred had $100M to spend like Obama, my guess is that somehow he would be the ‘miracle’ candidate and the GOP grassroots wouldn’t be so morose over the choices. But since his campaign isn’t apparent to most in the media, it will be a surprise when he comes up at or near the top of any states vote results.
This is especially true of his attempts to pander to Hispanics with his illegal alien amnesty program.
George may have succeeded to some extent, thus adding RINO's to the party.
Also, remember in the last election cycle, soccer moms were all the rage. Soccer moms are not traditional conservatives. They are for anything and everything the government can do to protect "the chilrin" they transport around in their minivans and emasculated SUVs.
Ironically, I am pretty sure 2008 is the year of the Rat....
Lawrence Solomon's "The Deniers" (a series of articles on the view of scientists who have been labelled "Global Warming Deniers"):
Other References:
From the European Space Agency: ERS altimeter survey shows growth of Greenland Ice Sheet interior:
Greenland ice-sheet elevation change in cm/year (see colour scale) derived from 11 years of ERS-1/ERS-2 satellite altimeter data, 1992-2003, excluding some ice-sheet marginal areas (white). +5.4 cm/year, or ~5 cm/year when corrected for bedrock uplift.
No kidding... Time to recognize IF you are a conservative, as I am, that the Republican party has left you.
Yep. That's what the place mat said.
LOL.............
Year of the rat.............
“Republicans, as a whole, are not as conservative as they once were.”
No kidding... Time to recognize IF you are a conservative, as I am, that the Republican party has left you.
***So what exactly is that process of recognition, and what are we social conservatives supposed to do about it? I honestly think if someone like James Dobson were simply to endorse Hunter, the Huck supporters would lose their steam, the support would transfer to Hunter, Thompson would continue his decline due to lost evangelical support, Romney would probably see strong declines, and the only real RINOs left to tackle would be McCainiack and Tootyfruityrudy.
If Duncan is on the ballot by the time PA votes, I will vote for him. If not, I will skip the primary and the general and change my registration to IND.
The RINOs are reclaiming what used to be Ronald Reagan’s party
***Not only that, but they have a fierce faction right here on free republic.
Wow. Someone FINALLY found something to actually hit Fred with. LOL
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