Government interference didn’t stop the previous market cycles. There has been government interference in ag since about 1930, and the commodity price cycles have come and gone with, if anything, higher peak:trough levels.
If the malthusians can point their quavering fingers to the past, what with their profound ignorance of the incredible increases in yields today, then I can point to hay as fuel. If we want to level the playing field, I’ll do that too.
This ag commodity cycle won’t be any different than those in the past. There’s going to be a collapse in ag commodity prices - probably (from looking at past charts, etc) out about five to eight years.
There’s been interference in the oil market for as long (or longer, actually) than they’ve been playing in the ag markets. If you want to see biofuels be given a lesson by the market, then get the government(s) out of the oil market. When the “real thing” comes back into compliance with supply/demand signals, the alternatives (ie, “make believe” fuels) will collapse as well.
The government interference has not been anywhere near this level. The 1996 farm bill was a major step to reform farm subsidies. The 2002 farm act and the 2005 and 2007 energy bills have taken us completely in the wrong direction to massive and unprecendented subsidies and mandates.
The government interference in the oil market is to make oil development and refining more difficult and expensive. The oil industry is subjected to a blizzard of taxes, regulations, and legal obstacles. I agree that we should stop this interference. This interference does not seem to be imposed on the alternative fuels industry. Comparatively, the alternative fuels industry has few problems getting approval for ethanol distillies, wind mills, solar plants, and new transmission capacity.
Ethanol boosters always seem to fall back on this absurd argument that oil is subsidized. They use this argument as justification for the massive subsidies and mandates provided to biofuel. These arguments have been made by two groups both of which are enemies of the oil industry: leftist groups who hate all kinds of energy and the biofuels industry that is looking for handouts.
If biofuels are so wonderful, you should denounce the subsidies and mandates or at least time limit the massive subsidies and mandates. Allow the market to determine the proper mix of fuel sources. Allow Brazilian ethanol into the country and subject ethanol to the same fuel taxes as gasoline.