How The Bradley Effect Blew Up The New Hampshire Polling

Townhall.com ^ | January 11, 2008 | John Hawkins

[IrishMike]

Let’s see,

Iowa - 3% minority .... Obama wins

New Hampshire - 10% voters registered on voting day
no residency requirements ..... Hildabeast wins

Racism or voter fraud ?
You be the judge

[UCFRoadWarrior]

I dont buy this Bradley effect.

There is too much anecdotal evidence showing that Hillary was bringing in out of staters to vote.

NH is a liberal state, so whites there would be more honest in voting for a black candidate

I think what we have here is the “Hillary Effect”....media refusing to call Hillary a cheater

[Hardastarboard]

Could it be that there were nefarious people at Diebold rigging the election as many left wing bloggers have already speculated? One, there's no evidence of that. Two, weren't these same conspiracy theorists claiming that Diebold worked for the GOP in the 2000 and 2004 elections? So now, Diebold takes orders from Hillary Clinton?

Mr. Hawkins unfortunately doesn't understand the nature of political psychosis. There are many (see my tagline for further information) who are crazy enough to believe that Hillary is a closet Republican, or at least a right-winger.

She was raised in a Republican home, after all, and she did vote for the war. Even if the nut cases don't believe she's actually a Republican, it's not a huge leap for them to believe that Diebold will sell its services to the highest bidder, and that Hillary was the highest bidder. Or, as an alternate theory, that the Republicans paid Diebold for Hillary's win because that's who they want to face in the general election.

See how easy this game is to play? I'll bet that with enough alcohol, crystal meth, Mary Jane, or just huffing paint out of a sock, you, too could come up with an explanation worthy of DU or the DailyKos.

[Always Right]

Finally a theory I agree with. Democrats are closet racists.

[Captain Rhino]

Well, if we accept the author’s premise, doesn’t the liberal, lying, “lily whiteness” of New Hampshire argue for demoting it from first place in the primary state queue because of a permanent built-in bias that is not reflective of the rest of the country???

Hmmmm???

[Always Right]

NH is a liberal state, so whites there would be more honest in voting for a black candidate

You are making a bad assumption that liberals aren't racists. The fact is, liberals are the biggest racists there are.

[kittymyrib]

Maybe we’ll see a older white woman tooling down a NH highway with a “Racist for Hillary!” bumper sticker on her Prius.

[Kaslin]

They sure are, but the MSM is ignoring that

[saganite]

Well, what he said-—or Hillary cheated. Let me think about it.

[Kaslin]

You know it makes me wonder when people can register on voting day.

Tennessee is one of the February 5th Super Tuesday states. Our early voting starts next Wedneday, January 16, and ends January 31. Registration ended Last Tuesday January 8th So if you have not registered by then you are out of luck

[Past Your Eyes]

"NH is a liberal state"

How it pains me to read that. But, unfortunately, I have to say that this once great state of mine is now no longer great and I can not refute those words.

[Kaslin]

You are making a bad assumption that liberals aren't racists. The fact is, liberals are the biggest racists there are.

You can say that again, and one needs only to take a look in this opinion journal editorial

The racist history the Democratic Party wants you to forget

[FReepaholic]

...there was obviously a factor on the Democratic side that was not in play with the Republicans....

True and that factor is: they cheat.

Hitlery bussed in voters from out of state. They weren't around for the pre-election polls.

[Alberta's Child]

NH is a liberal state, so whites there would be more honest in voting for a black candidate.

I don't think this is true at all.

I once had a black guy who grew up in Alabama in the bad old pre-Civil Rights days tell me that white liberals in the Northeast are more racist than anyone from his home town.

[gridlock]

For the polls to be accurate, they would have had to poll all the Democrats in Massachusetts as well!

[N. Theknow]

Bradley Effect?

Would that be Bradley Bus Lines?

[Kozak]

“Let’s see,

Iowa - 3% minority .... Obama wins

New Hampshire - 10% voters registered on voting day
no residency requirements ..... Hildabeast wins

Racism or voter fraud ?
You be the judge”

Except at the Iowa caucus, you had to stand PUBLICLY in the corner of the candidate you supported. Whereas in New Hampshire you got to vote in a nice private voting booth.
By the way this will be a factor in the general election if the Rats nominate Obama. Lots of people who will make a big show of supporting him until they pull the curtain of the voting booth.

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

I had speculated about exactly the same thing myself. And in Iowa where votes are not secret, lib-er-als will make a show of voting for a black.

It reminds me of the old (circa 1965) New Yorker cartoon. Two guys sitting at a bar, one says to the other, "You're not a liberal, I'm a liberal. I want a woman for president who's both a Negro and a Jew." (Polite people called the coloreds "Negroes" back then.)

[tanknetter]

Just another angry Liberal with a racial axe to grind seeing what exactly fits all his preconceive notions, biases and insecurities.

The reason for the disparity was probably GOTV. Not just bussing in people from Mass, but also the fact that modern GOTV methods happen at such a granular level that current (old) polling methods can't adequately capture what's really happening.

This guy obviously doesn't remember Ohio during the 2004 general election. The Kerry Campaign thought they had the state, and therefore the election, in the bag. Bob "Seven Time Loser" Shrum was calling Kerry "Mr. President". Then they lost the state by 30,000 votes because Karl Rove had put together a statistics-driven GOTV effort that got people to the voting polls in much greater numbers than the public opinion polls had predicted.