Posted on 01/11/2008 11:24:25 AM PST by Checkers
Well, the talk today on Rush and elsewhere is why Arthur has yet to really hit McCain. Romney already has.
If Fred begins rising in the next couple of polls and Huck drops, you will see Fred start going after McCain.
My sense is that McCains support is weak and if Fred shows he's in it to win it he will siphon votes from McCain anyway.
Fred is in this to beat Mitt too. If Mitt can beat McCain in Michigan I think it weakens McCain in SC. Fred must be the one to get those votes, not Huckabee.
Poor Owen.
If you check your calendar, you'll find that Mitt's battle to survive in Michigan is next Tuesday, several days before Fred's battle to survive in South Carolina.
Mitt's day of reckoning comes first.
And since Mitt's day of reckoning approaches so rapidly, why isn't Mitt spending a single penny attacking John McCain, the man who leads in the polls in Michigan?
>> Thompson’s big last stand is to be South Carolina and he won’t even attack the front runner there.
Until yesterday, Huckabee was the frontrunner.
>> There is no maneuver available to talk about Romney’s spending — because the subject of the moment is strictly, explicitly and specifically, Thompson.
I didn’t mention Romney. Romney’s losses in Iowa and NH make him somewhat irrelevant at this time. He could work his way back into relevancy, but, when you have an “early state strategy” ... you need to win an early state.
>> It is HIS failure to try to survive in South Carolina that is the subject of the moment. It is HIS betrayal of his donors who sent money to him that is the subject of the moment.
More melodramatic hyperbole? You’re overstating your case.
Thompson turned in what has been described as a “homerun” debate performance last night. He’s certainly “trying” to win South Carolina.
I don’t get the feeling you’re a Thompson donor anyway ... so what’re you complaining about?
H
You are way off base. McCain is intent on knocking out Romney. That is his number one target.
Now he's stopped. He's not running any ads criticizing his new ally in Michigan even though McCain leads there and Willard is desperate to win it.
A reprise of Grumpy Old Men
South Carolina is not Fred's last stand and he does not have to come in first there. Second behind McCain would work. Second behind Huckabee would work too. Third behind both would be substantially less workable.
You claim that Fred is not trying to survive and that he has betrayed his supporters, but you don't back this up with any specific analysis as to why attacking McCain now helps Fred more in S.C. than Fred's attacking Huck now helps him there.
I suggest you calm down a tad, show more respect for the candidates and your fellow FReepers, and explain rationally how you think this particular game is proceeding.
It's his ally now.
But a steaming turd of insanity is a poor choice for VP. I'd much rather see Romney in that role for Fred.
Why does the link say...HughHewett/townhall.com ?
Is pat carrying Hugh’s water today or does Hugh own Townhall?
Much time is spent talking of Willard’s behavior on FR, except when it is time to face the music and see that he won’t make the effort to take down the leader in the state he MUST have: Michigan.
Waxing Napoleonic, Owen?
Sheesh.
>> Thompson’s big last stand is to be South Carolina and he won’t even attack the front runner there.
There are strategic considerations that you’re not taking into account.
If you’re trying to quickly capture votes, you attack the guy who’s voters are in your wheelhouse. Huckabee is popular because of the false belief that he’s conservative ... Thompson’s running as a conservative. Thus, the quickest way to acquire conservative voters is to debunk Huck’s conservatism, and convince true conservatives that he (Thompson) is the real deal.
McCain tends to draw independents, not conservatives. Thompson is running as a conservative, so the likelihood that he’ll quickly undermine McCain’s “independent” hold is low.
H
My guess would be conservation of resources, but it also could be strategic.
Right now, Fred is ramping up a major ad buy in South Carolina. Fred will hit a lot of the same themes Romney does, and will do the same damage to Huckabee and McCain that a Romney ad will do. Romney’s base of support has stayed pretty loyal so far, so he may not be afraid of losing them over a one-week period. Meanwhile, if Fred takes votes from McCain and Huckabee, it makes Romney’s job easier.
Romney doesn’t need any more “here I am” ads in South Carolina, they know who he is. He’ll need ads contrasting his positions, and maybe defending — but first he needs to see what he should attack, and what needs defending. Watching how Thompson’s ads go will help, and it may make McCain and Huckabee target each other and Thompson instead of Romney. They won’t have an advertisement to play off of on any such attack.
Some have said that Romney’s taking a more positive approach to ads in Michigan. If that works, maybe he’ll use that approach in South carolina, so he’s holding off ad buys to see how it goes.
It’s not like he hasn’t run ads in South Carolina for months, or that people don’t know he’s running. The only danger in not buying ads is it lets your opponents claim you are giving up on the state.
Of course, when Fred Thompson wasn’t running ads and someone said he was giving up, that was a dirty trick.
You seem to have picked up on something we missed. How are Senator McCain and Governor Romney allied? I had the impression that they were directly competing with each other.
Personally ... I don’t think Romney’s the guy. I’m not particularly a Romney fan.
Personally, I’d like to see J.C. Watts nominated. He’s conservative, compelling, smart ... and he could strategically undermine Obama’s stranglehold on the black vote.
H
Michigan is an open primary. The more independents and Dems that come into the Republican side, the more likely they’ll break for McCain.
Negative ads work, but they also drive up the negatives of the person making the ad. And no, Romney does not have to win Michigan. Once the true Republican primaries get underway, we will have a better barometer of this race.
If Fred begins rising in the next couple of polls and Huck drops, you will see Fred start going after McCain.
My sense is that McCains support is weak and if Fred shows he's in it to win it he will siphon votes from McCain anyway.
Fred is in this to beat Mitt too. If Mitt can beat McCain in Michigan I think it weakens McCain in SC. Fred must be the one to get those votes, not Huckabee.
I appreciate that you have posted strategic analysis rather than attacks on the character or motivations of the candidates or their supporters. Well done.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.