You are quite off. Hillary has the worst negatives of any candidate running. But on the other hand, John McCain has the highest net favorability rating (consult Rasmussen).
The 1996 comparison is bunk for three reasons: Dole was running against an incumbent during a booming peacetime economy, McCain is a very energetic campaigner sometimes holding six or seven town halls a day tirelessly taking questions with a press meeting after every event (his staff literally needs to pull him on the bus to get to the next event he is so engaging), and Ross Perot siphoned off a lot of votes that would’ve went GOP that year.
Here’s the key to Hillary and there’s no way around it. I’ve cited her negatives and McCain’s favorables. But put simply independents loathe her and like (even love) McCain. Every occupant of the Oval Office is the one who wins independents.
As for Obama, I don’t expect he will win the nomination but if he were he would also be quite open to the charge that he does not have anything close to the experience needed to be POTUS. Never in recent times (going back many decades) has there been a nominee as inexperienced as Obama. McCain on the other hand is very much experienced would provide a stark contrast. We are at War lest we forget - the voters won’t forget either.
Finally, some polling to chew on...
Ohio (Survey USA 1/7):
McCain 50
Obama 43
Romney 39
Obama 51
Why would anyone even look at a poll after New Hampshire ?
No, you have cited polls. McCain will have huge negatives that will be capitalized on during the Generals. He has frequently gone on rants and rages, he has ties to the Keating 5 and so on and so on.... Many on Freerepublic think he is nuts. How do you overcome that ?