From an historical perspective and considering where we are with the ME and Pakistan and particularly regarding his stance on Iraq, a case can be made for McCain being the inevitable nominee. If intl events break just right between Sept and Nov, he’s there. McCain would be the next in line based on running and getting jammed by the party the time before, Bush in this instance. There’s a pecking order to these nominations sometimes. Not always the best way to go. Look at the less than stellar candidates both parties have had to run out of loyalty over the years. Kerry and Bob Dole immediately come to mind. On the other hand President Reagan was a loyalty nominee after getting jammed by the party in 76.
It’ always been Romney or McCain for me just because there are no perfect candidates and you have to look at who you trust to protect you and your interests. Romney comes first out of a primordial desire to remain employed while McCain satisfies my sleep soundly in my bed at night requirement. Either works for me. If Fred Thompson somehow some way rekindles more of his Joe Don Baker side (I always got the two mixed up in the movies) I would be thrilled. I worry about his poorly managed campaign being a warning sign however.