Posted on 01/12/2008 10:01:22 AM PST by jdm
If anyone films a documentary on the John McCain campaign, it ought to be George Romero. While the press had McCain as a dead man walking last summer, the Senator from Arizona has proven them all wrong -- and now looks as though he could sweep his way into Super Tuesday and the nomination. CNN has McCain taking a significant national polling lead, and he's jumped eight points above Rudy Giuliani in a Florida poll:
McCain has the support of 34 percent of registered Republicans in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey out Friday. That's a 21-point jump from the last CNN/Opinion Research poll, taken in December, well before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary earlier this month.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa Republican caucuses, is in second place in the new survey, with 21 percent of those registered Republicans polled supporting him for the GOP nomination.
Rudy Giuliani follows with 18 percent, a drop of six points from the December poll, when the former New York City mayor was the front-runner.
A few caveats are in order about the CNN poll. The sample isn't exactly sturdy. It only includes 397 registered Republicans, not likely primary voters. This doesn't make for a reliable predictive model, but at least one can see some trends that won't make the rest of the campaigns terribly happy.
One of those trends is voter enthusiasm. Among the entire Republican sample, McCain generates the highest amount of enthusiasm at 31%, and the lowest amount for dissatisfied and upset. Giuliani and Huckabee fall 10 and 11 points behind on enthusiasm, while Romney falls to the lowest enthusiasm number, 14%, among the top four candidates.
The Survey USA poll of Floridians looks more reliable, and the news remains good for McCain. They surveyed 502 likely Republican primary voters -- a stronger sample and one that is more predictive -- and found McCain in front of Rudy, 27%-19%. Huckabee and Romney tie at 17%, while Thompson comes in fifth at 8%. McCain takes all age groups but 18-34, and he wins 39% of black Republican votes (with Mitt a surprising second at 36%). Huckabee outdoes him in the panhandle and Romney on the Northeast, but McCain wins all of the other regions.
If McCain wins Michigan, he may build enough momentum to take Florida and all of its winner-take-all delegates. That will give him a lead and the momentum heading into Super Tuesday, and the potential to clinch the nomination. Rudy has to focus on his firewall if he wants to stop McCain from snatching the nomination with the cold-dead grip of a media-declared corpse, which is to say a lively candidate indeed.
I call BS on that one.
I don’t know who is telling bigger WHOPPERS McLAIR or the media!
I can’t stand McCain.Wouldn’t walk across the street to p—s on him if his pants were on fire.
The voters have to be informed about his ridiculous views on ILLEGAL WASTEFUL IMMIGRATION, taxes (huge hikes) and other definitely NOT conservative positions!
I am concerned that this election will be more about image and fluff than the issues. If this is the case, all bets are off.
OMG. What a pathetic poll. Clinton News Netwrok, again trying to shape news with a poll, not report news.
If Romney wins MI and Fred wins SC, the McCain Express will come to a screaming halt. Then Fred needs to pour all his resources into FL, and the race will be his.
This is the most depressing election since the slickster ran for reelection in ‘96.
Sigh.
C’mon, Fred, get the lead out!
First, 31% is pitifully low when you are talking about people within the same party. Regardless, believe it when you see it. Remember how everyone was going to vote for Guiliani not so long ago.
We need a program to get internet access to the ignorant hicks who vote for the Huckster. Right now it's "Look, he mentioned Jesus again, Myrtle, he's our guy!" and they have no idea what a tax-hiking illegal-alien coddling fake phony fraud he really is.
One poll I saw recently had about 70% of Republicans against amnesty and illegal immigration and yet McCain and Huckabee are leading in many polls. Have that many Republicans become brain dead? I don’t get it...
The MSM really wants McCain to be the nominee because in most ways, he’s just another lib.
i will vote for a dim before i vote for mcvain. he is a bitter, senile, corrupt, meglomaniac sho hides behind something that happen almost 40 years ago.
i would rather have a real dim with a D behind their name as president than a pseudo-republican like mcvain or the hucster so when they screw up the country, and they will, it’s a dim’s fault.
McCain is the one Republican I would never vote for, he can't be trusted with that much power.
I don’t like McCain either, but he has this dry sense of humor that rocks. The WH press conferences would be more livelier, IMO.
I would like to see Fred win it. I would be OK with Romney or Huckabee. I would reluctantly vote for Rudy.
If McCain is the nominee I’ll stay home.
If the highlight of a McCain administration would be his press conferences, we’re in for trouble.
Then I will vote third party. John McCain gives me the creeps, something is not right with him. He is also ultra liberal.
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