“has concluded that rates of decline are only 4.5 per cent a year”
So that means we have about 25 years to go before our oil is exhausted for all practical purposes. I’m not sure how he draws the conclusion that we’re not running out of oil.
Those are rates of decline of existing fields. Since the decline in existing fields is lower than previously estimated fewer new fields need to be opened to maintain status quo. Thus, we are much farther from exhaustion than previously indicated.
BTW- even if there were no new fields, the oil wouldn’t be exhausted after 25 years. At a 4.5% rate of decline, production in 25 years would be about 31% of today’s volume, not 0%.
Exploration and Technology has not stopped. On average, the world's proved reserves grows after supplying a increasing demand.
World Proved Crude Oil Reserves, 1980 - 2008
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/crudeoilreserves.xls
That is the rate of decline in existing sources.
Article says production can be 100 million barrels a day by 2017. What is it now? 100 million?
We might be out in those fields, but check your math. 4.5% decline the first year, 96.5%. 4.5% the second year (of the 96.5%) is less, so the depletion curve has a tendency to flatten out.
Of course, this assumes no new discoveries will occur, and we are finding new reserves (maybe not as spectacular, but new reserves) all the time. As those come on line, their production replaces the production 'lost' to depletion in reservoirs which were developed earlier.
New technology, especially horizontal drilling, has opened up entire fields which were previously not considered possible to produce.