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Nevada pre-caucus polling off by over 30 points! Why is that? (VANITY)
1/20/08 | vanity

Posted on 01/20/2008 5:25:07 AM PST by 1curiousmind

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To: 1curiousmind
It's possible skewed polls affected their decisions. Mitt di leave South Carolina early. We will prob never know why. Did their internal SC polling have them stuck at 15%? Were they worried about McCain (fron neighboring AZ) surging in Nevada?

None of this matter to the MSM, they already have their beloved maverick (and a loser) as being the winner in the race in Nov. Pumping bogus polls from dubious sources is an easy media trick.


I'd rather be waterboarded than vote for McCain.
21 posted on 01/20/2008 7:34:40 AM PST by citizen (Capt. McQueeg: "Have any of you an explanation for the quart of missing strawberries?" [click-clack])
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To: peyton randolph
Relatively low turnout. Disproportionately Mormon.

That's probably true. Vegas for sure is Mormon country.

22 posted on 01/20/2008 7:36:30 AM PST by InterceptPoint
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To: CPOSharky
People are so sick of pollsters that they are lying to them.

That and people don't answer their phones if they don't know the number on the caller ID.

23 posted on 01/20/2008 7:38:05 AM PST by pepperhead (Kennedy's float, Mary Jo's don't!)
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To: Strategerist; 1curiousmind

I have a few ideas why these polls were so off, especially in Nevada:

1) I’m guessing a lot of people thought they could vote and couldn’t. If you weren’t a registered Republican in Nevada, tough luck: you weren’t voting. (Which is the way it should be)

2) Nevada’s major newspapers all endorsed Romney AFTER or at the same time the polls were released. Papers in Las Vegas, Reno, and Carson City, if I recall correctly.

3) Romney was the only soul present in Nevada leading up the cauci. Of course he was going to inspire voters his way.

4) If they didn’t meet him personally, he was on the Tonight Show the night before.

5) If you went to the cauci undecided but surrounded by as many Romney supporters as were there, well....


24 posted on 01/20/2008 8:14:56 AM PST by CaspersGh0sts
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To: 1curiousmind

Simple. Polls are unreliable. The last thing you’d want to do is base any democratic processes on them, like excluding candidates from debate.

On Poll Results and the End of Conservatism
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1951282/posts

It does not bode well for our republic.


25 posted on 01/20/2008 9:16:34 AM PST by Kevmo (We need to get rid of the Kennedy Wing of the Republican Party. ~Duncan Hunter)
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To: CaspersGh0sts; All

Thanks for the responses. I can see how the caucus format lends itself to more inaccurate polling.

I still find it surprising (well, not really) that the media hasn’t said a peep about it.

Instead, the reporting has been along the lines that “everyone knew that Romney was going to win it in a landslide” thus his win was “no big deal”.

That was the same kind of thing that followed his win in MI...that the “hometown boy was surely going to win.” When right up to the primary he was neck and neck with McCain, battling it out. That’s all.

(Trying not to be too conspiratorial here!)


26 posted on 01/20/2008 9:21:16 AM PST by 1curiousmind (Romney/Thompson 08 - "We're not electing a Sunday school teacher, but a President." Falwell 5/07)
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