The average of the last set of South Carolina polls was almost exactly right.
Poll Average: McCain 27%, Huckabee 26%, Romney 15%, Thompson 15%, Paul 4%, Giuliani 3%.
Actual Results: 33%, Huckabee 30%, Thompson 16%, Romney 15%, Paul 4%, Giuliani 2%.
Differences can be attributed to there being no "undecideds" in the actual election as opposed to polls - the undecides broke for either McCain or Huckabee.
Of note is that Thompson got basically exactly what the polls were predicting (other than the anomalous ARG poll.)
“the undecides broke for either McCain or Huckabee.”
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I guess that is what bothered me about the polls being so far off. I (of course as a Romney supporter) feel that he could have beat Thompson, and possibly finished in the low 20’s had he not basically “pulled out” of SC in the final week.
It’s unclear if he did that just to save face (as apparently everyone else did in WY and NV) or if he was really worried he might lose NV.
I have a few ideas why these polls were so off, especially in Nevada:
1) I’m guessing a lot of people thought they could vote and couldn’t. If you weren’t a registered Republican in Nevada, tough luck: you weren’t voting. (Which is the way it should be)
2) Nevada’s major newspapers all endorsed Romney AFTER or at the same time the polls were released. Papers in Las Vegas, Reno, and Carson City, if I recall correctly.
3) Romney was the only soul present in Nevada leading up the cauci. Of course he was going to inspire voters his way.
4) If they didn’t meet him personally, he was on the Tonight Show the night before.
5) If you went to the cauci undecided but surrounded by as many Romney supporters as were there, well....