Rudy has put all of his RINO eggs into the Florida basket. He is the only candidate currently running TV ads as far as I know.
I don't watch them, just see his RINO mug zoom across the screen while I zip though the DVR.
Florida is a huge state with lots of diverse population from all over the country
Lots of NY'er live in South Florida and central Florida in Tampa and Orlando
Lots of evangelicals Christian live in north Florida
I think the real question will be where will McCain will finish.
Either way a McCain or Rudy win is not good.
Romney will have a tough time pulling third.
My predication:
Rudy wins by a very small margin
McCain is second by under 2 points
Huckabee is third
Romney is fourth
Thompson finish fifth
Ron Paul calls for an investigation of voter fraud because his legions of lunatics finished sixth.
I think Thompson will drop out before the primary which screws up my vote
Polls disagree with your analysis. Romney, McCain and Rudy are tied for first.
Huckabee is well behind.
Huckabee will fade further and the battle will center between Romney and McCain. McCain will get an SC bounce, but so will Romney as the other candidates fall by the wayside.
Thompson is out. Huck is toast. Rudy had Florida to himself but not for long. Jeb Bush is behind Romney, while the Cuban proamnesty politicians are helping McCain.
Romney IMHO will pull it off, and if not will be #2. Rudy #3 and Huck #4.