We know why so many did in 2000. They wanted Gore to win and therefor they voted for McCain in the belief that he was a lot easier for Gore to defeat. Gore had the nomination sewed up before there was a caucus or primary. In 2000 there was zero doubt that Gore would clobber Bill Bradley in the primaries and he did.
But this year we have real contests in both parties. Why would an independent who was planning to vote for the Democrat in the fall election vote in the Republican primaries? Independents has ranged between 20 and 30 percent of Republican primary voters.
If Independents are for Hillary why not vote for her when she really needs their votes. And if Independents are for Obama why not vote for him when he really needs their votes.
Could it be that independents don't care who wins the Democratic nomination? How could that be?
Could a big chunk of Indpendents have decided they can't vote for Hillary or Obama in the general election?
What would that mean? It most likely means they are either not going to vote or they are going to vote for the Republican nominee and are trying to get the most leftist Republican nominee they can.
Those that think the fall election looks good for either Hilary or Obama, need to explain why no one talks about Independents voting in the very contested Democratic primaries.
Presidential elections seem to be about who can capture the votes of the 20% who truly consider themselves independents with no political allegiance. As a candidate, you can't win with only the 40% or so who vote party line. You need at least half of those independents.
You're on to something that perhaps those 20% will not vote for either Hillary or Obama in the general. And a fair amount of them seem willing to vote for one or more of the GOP candidates.