Is this the same peak oil you were talking about a year ago or so?
It lasts that long?
There are as many peak oils are there are peak oilers. The old peak oil from the 50s was a first approximation. Now we have much more history to look at and see that while we are in peak oil now, the peak will not be so sharp as was first thought. In the 50s the world oil production was indeed likely to drop off quickly. Now so many fields are in production that oil production cannot drop off suddenly. Nevertheless oil production will drop off and as alternatives are developed the costs will rise. The decline will be much more gradual than the early models showed. If the Strait of Hormuz is interrupted the world oil production will step down instantly but world oil production will continue at a lower level, so we will not suddenly go dry, not even Europe since they have their North Sea as a buffer.