Posted on 01/22/2008 8:16:54 AM PST by jdm
After a disastrous 2006 election, Republicans lost control of Congress for the first time in twelve years. After a disastrous 2007 session, Democrats may have given Republicans a window of opportunity to take it back. Rasmussen reports that the GOP has closed the gap on the generic Congressional ballot question to five points, their best showing since November 2006:
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that, if the Congressional Election were held today, 43% of American voters say they would vote for the Democrat in their district and 38% would opt for the Republican (see crosstabs). That’s the closest Republicans have been on this measure since losing control of Congress in Election 2006. It’s also the first time in six months that the Democrat’s advantage has been in single digits. A month ago, the Democrats enjoyed a ten-point edge over the GOP.
Democrats lead by eleven among women while Republicans lead by three among men. A separate survey found that voters have fairly low expectations for Congress during this election year.
It remains to be seen whether this survey reflects lasting change or is merely a statistical aberration. However, it is worth noting that Republicans have also recently reduced the gap in partisan identification. This may be partly due to increased confidence in the War on Terror and the situation in Iraq.
One of the more worrying indicators for Democrats comes from the behavior of independents. Unaffiliated voters gave Democrats a 20-point edge in December. Now that number has fallen to six points, a dramatic shift in a demographic that the Republicans desperately need to recapture.
Democrats tried to sell 2007 as a winning year at the end of the first session, but this shows that no one bought it. They failed to budge the White House on the war, and they spent so much time on fruitless investigations that they failed to push the rest of their agenda. Their leadership now faces the daunting task of pushing an agenda during a presidential election cycle, a near-impossibility even under the best of circumstances with the most talented of leadership.
Under Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, it will turn from tragedy to farce, and in fairly short order.
Republicans appear to have picked up momentum, but it's largely based on recognition that the Democrats turned out worse than previous voter analysis of Republicans. If the GOP wants to give voters a real reason to continue flocking back to the Republican banner, they need to demonstrate their seriousness about ending corruption and pork-barrel politics and their commitment to limited government. Appointing Jeff Flake to Appropriations would be a good start, and an executive order defunding the airdropped earmarks in the latest omnibus spending bill would amplify that good start.
I recall seeing, a couple of years ago that the left enjoys a somewhat permanent advantage in these Party ID numbers and if the Rep. can close to 5 points is the same, for purposes of an election, as a dead heat.
The longer Schumer delays and reduces the economic stimulus, the closer he comes to Daschle’s fate.
Why are you laughing?
Because we just spent a year peeing in everyone's punchbowl and now we ALL stink. ;-)
the GOP has closed the gap on the generic Congressional ballot question to five points, their best showing since November 2006:
Well, since we got our a$$es handed to us in Nov ‘06 I wouldn’t call this exactly good news. Just less bad than before.
Maybe the only way we can survive is taking back House and Senate. Dont believe we can keep the Presidency.
But keeping all the RINOs wont cut it.
A Hillary v McCain matchup will actually help the congressional GOP IMO.
I am not a huge fan of McCain (I supported Fred Thompson), but I think the polarizing affect of Hillary, the fact that I think she will bring out the GOP vote (even overcoming McCain’s wishy washiness) AND drive some independents and maybe even a few white male moderate to conservative DEMS into McCain, which might translate into a few more votes down the ballot for the GOP.
I am no fan of Huckabee, Romney and not fired up about McCain, but if I would drive through a hellstorm to vote for Cartman, Adam Sandler or even my dog over Hillary Clinton.
I agree. There just aren’t that many welfare-grabbing, union thug trial lawyers out there. It’s gotta be less than 50%. aT LEAST i PRAY SO.
We will lose more seats in both houses and the Presidency. We cannot win with the pathetic liberal team we have been presented with. 8 years of canklesaurus... bank on it!
LLS
A great strategy would be to point out that the economy turned south after the Democrats took control of Congress. They delayed the budget and increased earmarks 400%. Making the tax cuts permanent was not even in the cards. Now we’re headed towards recession. Thank Nancy and Harry!
It's also possible that, if a less than desirable Republican is the nominee, committed conservatives may turn inward and concentrate on their Congressional candidates, rallying around them, and helping to get them elected. Having conservatives in Congress, and possibly taking it back from the Democrats, would go a long way toward countering any bad legislation supported either by a RINO, or a Democrat president.
True. I just can't see Clinton energizing the Dem base all that much esp. if the primary continues to be as nasty as it has been and blacks think Clinton is ganging up on Obama.
I hope you still do, since he's still in the race. ;o) I'm looking forward to voting for him on Super Duper Tuesday!
Yeah, maybe but with the economy tanking, the media and the Left will put that baggage directly on Bush and his Party. We get shafted either way.
All you can do is vote Republican. If you allow the media to make up your mind then you are handing them a victory without a fight.
Do all YOU can and don’t worry about the biased media.
btt
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