The ABM Vote: Anybody But McCain by John Batchelor

HumanEvents.com ^ | 23 January 2008 | John Batchelor

[K-oneTexas]

The ABM Vote: Anybody But McCain

by John Batchelor

Posted: 01/23/2008

With sturdy Fred Thompson gone from the GOP race, and Gov. Huckabee fading, Governor Romney and Mayor Giuliani remain in contention to capture the ”ABM” vote:  Anybody But McCain. Each of the two have strengths that will make the choice of just one of them a challenge in the weeks lefts before Super Tuesday and the lesser dates in February that will dominate the choice of the nominee.  At the same time, each of them has the same weakness, that is, history.  To nominate either of them would be unprecedented for the Republican Party not because of their politics, or character, but because of their proud and clear self-descriptions -- Mitt Romney as a capitalist, and Rudy Giuliani as a New York mayor.

Mitt Romney is a very smart man, and his remark on the very day of greatest market turmoil is a measure of his experience in the world of free enterprise:

"I can tell you from my own personal experience that every time I've seen things really get scary and the markets really collapse that I put aside that fear for a moment and say, 'Ah-ha, is this a buying opportunity?' Because my experience has always been what goes down, comes back up."

Everything is right about this observation, from the advice to buy when there's blood in the street to the long-term regard for sound investments in growth.  At the same time, Mr. Romney also identifies himself as completely a capitalist bull.  This is a traditional weakness when you are running for POTUS.  There has never been a successful nominee of either party who identified himself primarily as a capitalist.  A century ago, such a title would have pushed the candidate into the Carnegie-Morgan-Rockefeller division of the GOP and would have been ruinous at the general election.  Carnegie cost Harrison in 1892; and Morgan and Wall Street likely cost Taft in 1912.  Even the Bull Moose himself, T.R., fled capitalism when he ran as a breakaway in 1912. 

Half a century ago, Governor Romney's remark would have associated himself with the men in the gray flannel suits, the corporation man, and this became a negative on the campaign trail after the travails of former Ford boss McNamara with the Kennedy Administration, and even was a drag on Governor Romney's former American Motors boss father in the 1964 GOP. Bluntly, there is no precedent for the electorate to choose a “capitalist tool” over a military man like McCain. If and when it happens, Mitt Romney will be the new mold all by himself (Willkie is an outlier and unclassifiable even as a Republican), and will introduce a new phase to the GOP that has avoided the Wall Street mantle for its choices for one hundred years.

With Mayor Giuliani there is the historical weakness that the GOP has never chosen a New York City official for a nominee.  That too would be unprecedented.  After Garfield's horrible end, a lingering death from assassination, the former Collector of the Port of New York Chester Arthur served out the term; however he did not run for election, and this does not qualify as precedent.  TR himself might satisfy except for the fact that he added governor of New York and vice-president to his profile before he ascended by the accident of assassination and won re-election accordingly.

What's wrong with a mayor of the largest city becoming a Republican nominee?  Chiefly, it's because New York City is a Democratic stronghold.  It voted against Lincoln twice and has voted against as many Republicans as it can find since.  Rudy Giuliani is an Achilles in the Troy of the Democrats.  He is an exception to everything about the Republican Party's history.   What makes him colorful and effective in New York also makes him over the top and even shocking to the GOP states, and might make him unacceptable to the ABM crowd that identifies immigration and abortion as touchstones. 
If and when Mr. Giuliani becomes the Republican nominee, it will be so surprising that the party may have to rename itself something up to date, such as the Grand Old Borough.

When Bob Novak writes that the Republican elite is struggling to accept that John McCain is the party's likely nominee, after these may years of friction and food fighting between the Arizona senator and the conservative base, it has more to do with accepting the weight of party history than with discovering how to live with the unimaginable. 

Republican.  History is a mighty river.  It flows where it wants to and it wears down any obstacle.  What old school John McCain has on his side right now is that his major opponents are new, much too new, and they're swimming against the current.

---

Mr. Batchelor is a veteran novelist, author of seven political romances and a short history of the Republican Party, and host of The John Batchelor Show, now on hiatus.

[K-oneTexas]

IMHO, McCain does not have the temperament nor the philosophy to lead the Free World as President of the United States. He is another of the ilk of Bill & Hillary in that he will tell you he knows what is best for you and doesn't care what your opinion is. He is a compromiser and will not stand up for what he says are his beliefs ... as evidenced by his actions in the US Senate over the years. His closeness and willingness to support and champion Dem ideals and bills is disgusting.

The Republican Party needs some one who is in their camp. Romney is a moderate republican ... in the republican camp. McCain, Rudy and Huckabee are liberal republicans ... on the fringe almost out of the republican camp. We have a chance to build and move into a more conservative leaning with Romney to move to more conservative but never with the others. Casting a vote for McCain or Rudy is asking for leadership just like Hillary's, in effect casting a vote for dem/liberal government. McCain and Rudy, for sure, and most possibly Huckabee are more than RINO's ... they are closet Democrats.

Lets look at their actions today and in recent things which show their character. Whether it's politically motivated you nor I can really know. We don't know anyones ulterior motives. How can anyone assumes so here. We can take their words and determine which will keep us on a steady course as little changed as possible.

If you want change ... vote Hillary, Obama, McCain or Rudy. You will get the democrat idea of change. Right now vote Romney and keep us in a predominantly republican camp as both his feet, as a moderate republican, are in the republican camp. The others are on their way out of it.

We'll also need to get more republicans in Congress at the same time, Nov '08 General Election.

Bottom Line: To stop a democrat don't vote for one with the same mentality.

[Greg F]

Go for a brokered convention leading to a choice of none of the above. That means in states where Huckabee is leading or close to the RINO’s Romney and McCain, vote Huckabee, in states where Guilianni has a shot vote Guilianni, and split the delegates. We need a new face at the convention and some excitement.

[nmh]

Gotta go with Mitt!

He’s not bad and he’d win.

I’d love to see hum clean Hillary’s clock.

[outofstyle]

GOP has never chosen a New York City official for a nominee

Teddy Roosevelt was New York Governor. Didn't hold at least some office in NYC prior to that? I read a great biography of him but I cannot recall.

[outofstyle]

Go for a brokered convention leading to a choice of none of the above. That means in states where Huckabee is leading or close to the RINO’s Romney and McCain, vote Huckabee, in states where Guilianni has a shot vote Guilianni, and split the delegates.

Or, simply write a check to the DNC.

[bcsco]

All these media people look at past trends and ‘barometers’ to project future events. They seldom look at the will of the American people. And when they do they discount it because it often goes against these trends.

For instance, this piece. It is written about ‘ABM’ or Anyone but McCain, but then contends trends may well override that drive. Well, I for one will never vote for McCain; either in the primary or general election.

McCain may win the primary, but he’ll never win the general election. Why? Because his conservative base will never support him, either philosophically or financially. And without that support (and he’s in need of strong financial support as I write) he’s DOA. That’s the current John McCain is swimming against.

[o_zarkman44]

What part of RI-NO! do they not understand?

No RINO! No maverick.

I would like to know where the sudden surge in support for McCain came from since he was DOA 3 months ago.

[weegee]

Alan Keyes isn’t McCain.

[LifeOrGoods?]

Good stuff.

Another disqualification voters often overlook is that McCain probably does not have the physical, mental, and moral stamina to be a President and leading decision maker in the midst of many trying and demanding situations.

[sola_fide]

Teddy Roosevelt was New York Governor. Didn't hold at least some office in NYC prior to that?

Yes, he was NYC chief of police.

[Greg F]

Why is a brokered convention a bad thing? Our current candidates suck from a conservative perspective.

[nmh]

If you want a “religious” humanist, then vote for
Mike Huckabee. He’ll fund his humanism, just as he did in Arkasas vie socialism - YOUR NONEY.

Expect HIGH TAXES, and lots of Scripture out of context to support his HUMANISTIC approach. Mike Huckabee won’t let the religious LEFT down.

[hoe_cake]

Do you really think Romney could beat Hillary?

[Sybeck1]

Didn’t McCain take the hint in 2000?

[nmh]

Absolutely!

Mitt is no dope. He’s a sharp guy. His personal life highlights his business savvy and street smarts. He’s no fool.

[hoe_cake]

Yes, but will middle of the road Americans vote Romney over Hillary?

I’m asking because I want to vote to beat Hillary, whomever can do that.

[ClancyJ]

Very astute analysis. I agree about McCain.

You can never trust McCain when you really need him. Seems he always has to exert his power to do it his way when he is really needed.

Age, his medical condition, and his temperament are really against him. And conservatives must never trust the man - he always fails us.

On top of that - I do not believe he is stable, has far too much anger and the ability to totally ignore what the voters are telling him - to go it “his” way.

[Emperor Palpatine]

Has anyone considered a “Draft Rick Santorum” idea as of yet?

[ClancyJ]

Would not be surprised if there was some “under-the-table” deal with the democrats as referenced by his past wielding of his power.

You can always get more support from the dems and the media when you work with them - instead of for us.

[K-oneTexas]

He was NY State Rep, on the NYC Police Board (Commissioner?) and Governor.