All I can picture in my mind is three weeks ago Rudy was pulling in well over a 1,000 people at rallys, before the other candidates even showed their faces in Florida. I could picture him saying, "OK you guys, leave here today, and go directly to your polling place (which opened already) and vote for me". If I was a supporter at a rally like that, the enthusiasm that usually goes along with that type of event would have propelled me to do just that, go out and vote that day. I also had seen, in the last week two different estimates, one had Rudy up in the early polling, and one with McCain up, but none with Mitt up in the early voting, so that is why I am saying take the late "surge" with a grain of salt.
I was gone last night, and never turned on the TV, or came to Freep until this morning, so when I saw Obamas win I was shocked. I don't think any "poll" out there came close did it?
On another subject, how long does John Edwards stay in after his pitiful performance? South Carolina could be the demise of the two opposite party hopefuls, Thompson and Edwards.
“All I can picture in my mind is three weeks ago Rudy was pulling in well over a 1,000 people at rallys, before the other candidates even showed their faces in Florida. I could picture him saying, “OK you guys, leave here today, and go directly to your polling place (which opened already) and vote for me.’”
One problem with your scenario. Early voting, by Florida law, doesn’t open until 15 days before an election, and Rudy had already slipped to within the margin of error in most polls by January 14th.