Posted on 01/27/2008 7:52:19 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin
The big top hasn't been set up yet, but there are growing signs that the traveling circus of presidential politics will make a stop in Wisconsin after all.
The state's Feb. 19 presidential primary, which had threatened to be inconsequential in a year when many of the primaries have been pushed up, may still prove critical to both Republican and Democratic candidates.
Even after the Feb. 5 "Super Tuesday" primaries, when voters in more than 20 states go to the polls, the field may be split among as many as four Republicans and at least two Democrats.
So far, only one of the candidates -- Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois -- has set up a campaign office in the state. But political observers say it's just a matter of time before the others arrive.
Wisconsin's increasing importance is a result of this year's unpredictable primary results in other states.
On the Democratic side, what had been widely viewed as a formality for the nomination of U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton has turned into a brawl with Obama and, to a lesser degree, with former U.S. Sen. John Edwards.
On the Republican side, the first set of contests have produced three different winners -- former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in Iowa, U.S. Sen. John McCain in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in Michigan. Former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani is pinning his hopes on Florida's Jan. 29 primary and some of the Super Tuesday states.
Given the prospects that candidates on both sides may end up splitting the pot on Super Tuesday, that leaves Wisconsin as one of only a handful of states in the following two weeks, and one of only three states voting on Feb. 19, along with Washington and Hawaii.
"I think, for all the fretting whether Wisconsin's primary was early enough, we couldn't have positioned ourselves any better," said Mark Jefferson, executive director of the state Republican Party.
In some quarters, the prospect of playing a decisive role in the national contest is already mobilizing some hard-core activists.
"The level of excitement seems to be more on the Democratic side, but there's also some on the Republican side," said Democratic strategist Mike Tate, who ran Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean's unsuccessful campaign in Wisconsin four years ago. "You're seeing a lot of people talking about the races and really wanting to see the candidates."
Make or break?
Like Dean, who pinned his candidacy on a strong showing in Wisconsin and dropped out of the race after finishing third, this could be a key battleground for former Sen. John Edwards.
Edwards has yet to make a first-place showing in any of the primaries, but one Democratic observer suggested that he might try to hold on until Wisconsin, where he placed second behind U.S. Sen. John Kerry four years ago, figuring, "That's the state where I can score."
Edwards is running his campaign on a shoestring budget and, so far, has no staff in the state. But he does have some very vocal backers, including state Democratic Party Chairman Joe Wineke and Madison Mayor Dave Cieslewicz.
The big guns, on the Democratic side, though, belong to U.S. Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Gov. Jim Doyle, the state's top-ranking Democrat, endorsed Obama after he won the Iowa caucuses earlier this month.
The move marked a departure for Doyle, who remained studiously neutral four years ago and avoided endorsing Kerry even after he won the Wisconsin primary. Doyle finally backed Kerry after the presidential hopeful had sewn up the Democratic nomination, and Doyle campaigned hard for him in the fall.
Obama's campaign opened a Milwaukee office earlier this month and has five full-time staffers in the state, headed by field director Nickolas Meyer. The UW-Madison Students for Obama organization, which began meeting last fall, remains one of the largest student chapters in the nation.
Obama has already appeared in Wisconsin twice, including an event last year at the Monona Terrace Convention Center that drew more than 2,000 supporters who paid at least $30 each to hear him speak.
Obama volunteers from Wisconsin helped mobilize an unprecedented turnout at the Iowa caucuses, and they have now turned to making get-out-the-vote calls to voters in Minnesota, which holds its primary on Super Tuesday.
"We're here early because we believe organization matters," said Obama spokesman Ben LaBolt. "You can't just build a grassroots organization overnight. It's something where you have to lay the groundwork weeks or months in advance."
Clinton, meanwhile, is expected to announce her state staff sometime next week. She, too, has some prominent allies, including Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton and Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk.
Some of Clinton's most trusted confidants hail from Wisconsin, including Teresa Vilmain, one of the nation's most sought-after Democratic campaign strategists, and Madison attorney Brady Williamson.
Tate, who says he doesn't work for any candidate in this year's primary, said that while early organization may help, it's not necessarily decisive.
"Howard Dean was here for a good 11 months before the primary, and he got 18 percent statewide. We did more organizing than anybody else, but we came in third place. John Kerry opened an office in Milwaukee two weeks before the primary, and he cleaned house," he said.
Republican campaigns
So far, none of the Republican candidates has set up shop in Wisconsin, but two of the state's top campaign strategists are already tied to the presidential race.
The party's former executive director, Rick Wiley, is working for Giuliani, while the state's former political director, Jill Latham, is working for Romney.
Two of the state's most prominent Republicans are similarly split: Former Gov. Tommy Thompson is backing Giuliani, while Thompson's longtime top aide, former Administration Secretary Jim Klauser, is backing Romney.
The absence of any state offices yet may make little difference in the eventual outcome, said Mark Graul, who served as state campaign director for President Bush in 2004.
"This is a different year. It's so much more wide-open on both sides" that campaigns can't really afford to focus more than one or two weeks in advance, Graul said, adding that any national campaign is likely to achieve little more than "organized chaos" in the time between Super Tuesday and the Wisconsin primary.
That could mean a bigger role for local politicians who have their own campaign networks -- such as members of Congress or prominent state lawmakers.
Only U.S. Rep. Tom Petri of Fond du Lac has endorsed a candidate, in his case Romney. Both U.S. Reps. James Sensenbrenner and Paul Ryan have been courted by the candidates but have yet to endorse any of them.
Graul said other grassroots groups -- such as the National Rifle Association or anti-abortion organizations -- could play a role, too. The state's largest anti-abortion group, Wisconsin Right to Life, endorsed U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson, but Thompson has dropped out of the race.
In case anyone cares for my opinion, these are two of the ONLY Republicans in my state who I trust. I will back who they back; hopefully it's the same guy, LOL! And that's not because I'm an unthinking drone...it's because it is what it is.
Our GOP Leader left to work for Rooty fer Pete's Sake! We lost WI for Bush to Kerry by 11,841 votes in 2004.
It's going to be a bumpy ride.
Wasn’t the loss to Gore in 2000 only about 5600 votes?
Yep.
I sooo wanted to vote for Fred. I think much of Wisconsin (those of us on the right side of things, that is) felt the same way.
Fred is still on the ballot in Wisconsin, as are Hunter and Tancredo. The ballot was certified in December.
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