Payroll report from ADP - WOW big number

ADP ^ | 01.29.08 | ADP

[q_an_a]

Nonfarm private employment grew 130,000 from December 2007 to January of 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment ReportTM. The estimated change in employment from November to December was revised down 3,000 to 37,000. January's increase of 130,000 is consistent with nonfarm private employment growth that averaged 110,000 during the three-month period from October through December 2007.

[q_an_a]

First good druable goods numbers and now this - we msut be heading into a recession.

[2banana]

Quick - cut interest rates another 1%!

[Southack]

It’s nice to see that we’ve still got strong jobs growth and high Productivity.

With lower interest rates and a stimulus package, we might be able to laugh at the economic doom-sayers, yet!

[raybbr]

Exlpain this from the BlS.

The unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent in December, while nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (+18,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job growth in several service-pro- viding industries, including professional and technical services, health care, and food services, was largely offset by job losses in construction and manufacturing. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents, or 0.4 percent.

[q_an_a]

ADP has private sector non- government report and BLS includes all jobs...inlcuding gov. payrolls. (our local wall street reporter -Dallas - gave this data during morning drive. He thinks tomorrow the BLS will have big job growth and a decline in unemployment.

[rebel_yell2]

Most people don’t know that the BLS conducts TWO employment surveys: the Establishment survey and the Household survey. The headline “employment” number comes from the Establishment survey of “established” businesses and the headline “unemployment rate” number comes from the Household survey of households. (You can’t calculate an unemployment rate from a survey of employers). The Establishment survey is much larger and hence is a more “accurate” number. But only the household survey captures self-employed workers and workers at small and newly established firms. This explains why the two numbers (employment and unemployment) can appear to move in same direction (higher employment and higher unemployment).Also, the size of the “labor force” (those looking to work or working) can change, leading to seemingly inconsistent numbers. When there is a change in the economy, the Household survey tends to lead the Employment survey. Look carefully at Friday’s employment numbers for clues as to whether the U.S. economy is really heading south. The Fed gets a preliminary look before the rest of us, and the 50 b.p. cut suggests that the numbers will be ugly.