Posted on 01/31/2008 12:22:52 AM PST by Checkers
A McCain-friendly strategist looks at the Super Tuesday map and sees some opportunities for Romney, but probably not enough. Massachusetts (41 delegates) is a gimme (probably by a wide margin), and if the pro-Romney turnout from Mormons in Utah (36 delegates) is on par with the turnout in Nevada, it should be in the Romney pile. Romney has some high-profile endorsements in Missouri (58 delegates) and Colorado (a caucus state, 46 delegates), so presumably with those endorsees' help in the ground game, he could do okay.
One poll in Colorado looks good for Romney. The last ones in Missouri have shown Huckabee, McCain, and Romney all pretty close together.
Looking at the other states...
Alaska? (29 delegates) I've found only one poll in this state, from December, and it put Ron Paul in first place.
Arizona? (53 delegates, winner take all) McCain.
Arkansas? (34 delegates, allocated by district and who wins statewide) Huckabee, obviously.
Alabama? (48 delegates, mixed, somewhat proportional) Probably Huckabee, but some polls show McCain close.
California (173 delegates, divided by congressional district) will be this insane dogfight, with delegates distributed on a per-congressional-district basis, but McCain's ahead of Romney and Huckabee in current polls. With the Rudy endorsement and the help of Rudy's ground game operations, McCain should walk away with at least a healthy plurality, if not a majority of California's delegates.
Connecticut? (30 delegates, winner take all) Looking good for McCain.
(Excerpt) Read more at campaignspot.nationalreview.com ...
Delaware? (18 delegates,winner take all) A lot of folks figured this was Giuliani territory, but I found one poll giving it to Romney.
Georgia? (72 delegates, winner take all) Most folks have been giving it to Huckabee, and polls concur.
Illinois? (70 delegates, based more or less by district) The latest poll puts McCain up, 31 percent to 20 percent. Romney will walk away with some delegates, but it'll probably be another silver medal.
Minnesota? (40 delegates, a hopelessly complicated caucus system) A Star-Tribune poll from last fall put Giuliani in first, McCain in second.
Hugh Hewitt puts Montana (25 delegates) in Romney's pile, and if Romney's run strong anywhere so far, it's been the west. Even though it's a caucus, it's effectively winner take all.
New Jersey? (52 delegates, winner take all) McCain led with Giuliani in it. We'll have to see where the Rudy voters go, but you figure the endorsement will bring over at least some of them.
New York? (101 delegates, winner take all) Similar story to New Jersey - McCain was up with Giuliani in it; he should remain in front.
North Dakota? (26 delegates, winner take all if he gets more than two thirds, otherwise proportionally). I cannot find any polls for North Dakota. Mitt Romney won a straw poll out there with 29 percent. I'll put it in his pile.
Oklahoma? (41 delegates, some to who wins each district, some to who wins statewide) The most recent poll puts McCain up; before that it was Huckabee.
Tennessee (55 delegates, winner takes all if they hit 50 percent, otherwise based on who wins each district and 13 to who wins statewide): A January poll had Thompson in first place, but Huckabee well ahead of McCain and Romney.
West Virginia (30 delegates, but only 9 on primary day, 3 per congressional district): The only poll I could find was from nearly a year ago. For what it's worth, it put McCain way ahead of Romney or Huckabee, but in March of last year, few had heard of those guys.
In the Romney pile, we’ll probably have about five to seven wins, and the delegates most of Massachusetts, all of Utah, all of Montana, most of Colorado, all of Missouri, and if that poll is correct, all of Delaware, and perhaps most of North Dakota's. And he’ll get some of California’s.
I put him at about 200 to 250 delegates.
In the Huckabee pile, we’ll have Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, and maybe he’ll get some of California’s.
I put him around 200.
In the McCain pile, we’ll have all of Arizona, all of New York, all of New Jersey, all of Connecticut, probably the largest chunk of California’s, probably most of Minnesota's, probably majorities in Oklahoma and West Virginia.
I put him around somewhere north of 400 delegates.
Alaska may go for Ron Paul, and he may get a majority of their 29 delegates.
That would put things at about McCain at 500+ (needing 1,191 to be the nominee), Romney at 325, Huckabee at 230 or so.
ping
ping
- I put him (Huckabee) around 200.
Some heads are going to explode when Huckabee comes out of Super Tuesday with more delegates than Romney. LoL!
HUCKABEE - OUR WORST CANDIDATE
The guy who’s job it was to make the old RINO mcCain look palatable:
http://realmikehuckabee.blogspot.com/
Mike Huckabee’s extraordinary rise in the polls means he deserves to be taken seriously as a presidential candidate in a way he hasn’t been all year long. Serious candidates have well-formulated views on foreign policy. What are Huckabee’s?
He hasn’t been asked about them much — reporters prefer to inquire after his views on evolution—but Don Imus, on his resurrected radio show, queried Huckabee the other day about his foreign-policy experience. Huckabee not so humbly invoked Ronald Reagan, who also, according to the former Arkansas governor, ascended to the presidency with no foreign-policy experience. As Powerline’s Paul Mirengoff has pointed out, this is — to say the least — an inapt analogy. Ronald Reagan lived and breathed the global fight with the Soviet Union for decades, and had been an important voice on the right on foreign policy long before he was president.
Mike Huckabee, by contrast, cut his teeth on typical state-level fare in Arkansas and on weight-loss and wellness programs. This is probably why he felt compelled to quip to Imus, “And the ultimate thing is, I may not be the expert that some people are on foreign policy, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night.” (Powerline also points out that he used the exact same line on Imus a year earlier when foreign policy came up.) This won’t do.
(snip)
On Iran, Huckabee is at his most troubling. He accuses the administration of “proceeding down only one track with Iran: armed confrontation.” This is false, and the kind of rhetoric you’d expect from DailyKos bloggers, not a Republican presidential candidate. Huckabee thinks it has been a lack of diplomatic engagement that has soured our relations with Iran: “We haven’t had diplomatic relations with Iran in almost 30 years, my whole adult life and a lot of good it’s done. Putting this in human terms, all of us know that when we stop talking to a parent or a sibling or a friend, it’s impossible to accomplish anything, impossible to resolve differences and move the relationship forward. The same is true for countries.”
(snip)
In sum, conservatives should have worries about the depth and soundness of Mike Huckabee’s foreign-policy views. And staying at a Holiday Inn Express is not going to be enough to allay them.
People heard for themselves last night, in his own words how Huckabee supports the mission in Iraq and how Romney wanted to cut and run with a timetable.
As for Iran, Bush has made clear that he thinks diplomacy has a chance at working but all options are on the table. The Huckabee position is no difference at all. We talk with them or at them but all options are on the table.
I hope so. It would be a strong message for life, the 2nd amendment and completely changing the income tax (which Romney always opposed)
Bush didn’t have any foreign policy experience. But he had convictions, a sense of right and wrong...and Cheney at his side.
Huckabee also has a moral compass based on first principles but has Hunter at his side instead of Cheney.
now as for Romney, a flip flopping one term governor ...where’s the beef?
*sigh*
One too many coffee-spills for this keyboard. Will open up and set up the new machine and keyboard when renovation's done and dust is clear.
Huckabee=McCain in the end. So yeah.
The American people deserve what they get when they are irresponsible and uninformed with their vote.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
You need a rest after that mouthful. I often berate myself for not staying more informed than I do but the part that scares me is that it seems that at least eight out of ten that I hear mention politics seem to know less than I do. One man told me on Tuesday morning that he intended to vote in the Republican primary but had not yet decided who to vote for!
Actually, they heard the opposite. Have you always had this aversion to truth?
Looking Ahead to Super Tuesday
A McCain-friendly strategist looks at the Super Tuesday map and sees some opportunities for Romney, but probably not enough. Massachusetts (41 delegates) is a gimme (probably by a wide margin), and if the pro-Romney turnout from Mormons in Utah (36 delegates) is on par with the turnout in Nevada, it should be in the Romney pile. Romney has some high-profile endorsements in Missouri (58 delegates) and Colorado (a caucus state, 46 delegates), so presumably with those endorsees' help in the ground game, he could do okay.
One poll in Colorado looks good for Romney. The last ones in Missouri have shown Huckabee, McCain, and Romney all pretty close together.
Looking at the other states...
Alaska? (29 delegates) I've found only one poll in this state, from December, and it put Ron Paul in first place.
Arizona? (53 delegates, winner take all) McCain.
Arkansas? (34 delegates, allocated by district and who wins statewide) Huckabee, obviously.
Alabama? (48 delegates, mixed, somewhat proportional) Probably Huckabee, but some polls show McCain close.
California (173 delegates, divided by congressional district) will be this insane dogfight, with delegates distributed on a per-congressional-district basis, but McCain's ahead of Romney and Huckabee in current polls. With the Rudy endorsement and the help of Rudy's ground game operations, McCain should walk away with at least a healthy plurality, if not a majority of California's delegates.
Connecticut? (30 delegates, winner take all) Looking good for McCain.
Delaware? (18 delegates,winner take all) A lot of folks figured this was Giuliani territory, but I found one poll giving it to Romney.
Georgia? (72 delegates, winner take all) Most folks have been giving it to Huckabee, and polls concur.
Illinois? (70 delegates, based more or less by district) The latest poll puts McCain up, 31 percent to 20 percent. Romney will walk away with some delegates, but it'll probably be another silver medal.
Minnesota? (40 delegates, a hopelessly complicated caucus system) A Star-Tribune poll from last fall put Giuliani in first, McCain in second.
Hugh Hewitt puts Montana (25 delegates) in Romney's pile, and if Romney's run strong anywhere so far, it's been the west. Even though it's a caucus, it's effectively winner take all.
New Jersey? (52 delegates, winner take all) McCain led with Giuliani in it. We'll have to see where the Rudy voters go, but you figure the endorsement will bring over at least some of them.
New York? (101 delegates, winner take all) Similar story to New Jersey - McCain was up with Giuliani in it; he should remain in front.
North Dakota? (26 delegates, winner take all if he gets more than two thirds, otherwise proportionally). I cannot find any polls for North Dakota. Mitt Romney won a straw poll out there with 29 percent. I'll put it in his pile.
Oklahoma? (41 delegates, some to who wins each district, some to who wins statewide) The most recent poll puts McCain up; before that it was Huckabee.
Tennessee (55 delegates, winner takes all if they hit 50 percent, otherwise based on who wins each district and 13 to who wins statewide): A January poll had Thompson in first place, but Huckabee well ahead of McCain and Romney.
West Virginia (30 delegates, but only 9 on primary day, 3 per congressional district): The only poll I could find was from nearly a year ago. For what it's worth, it put McCain way ahead of Romney or Huckabee, but in March of last year, few had heard of those guys.
In the Romney pile, we’ll probably have about five to seven wins, and the delegates most of Massachusetts, all of Utah, all of Montana, most of Colorado, all of Missouri, and if that poll is correct, all of Delaware, and perhaps most of North Dakota's. And he’ll get some of California’s.
I put him at about 200 to 250 delegates.
In the Huckabee pile, we’ll have Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, and maybe he’ll get some of California’s.
I put him around 200.
In the McCain pile, we’ll have all of Arizona, all of New York, all of New Jersey, all of Connecticut, probably the largest chunk of California’s, probably most of Minnesota's, probably majorities in Oklahoma and West Virginia.
I put him around somewhere north of 400 delegates.
Alaska may go for Ron Paul, and he may get a majority of their 29 delegates.
That would put things at about McCain at 500+ (needing 1,191 to be the nominee), Romney at 325, Huckabee at 230 or so.
You must have been watching from the wrong side of the TV screen (you know, where everything is reversed).
I thought that Romney missed a good chance to educate John McCain about military matters. Where McCain was trying to insinuate that Romney was in favor of the Democrat strategy of "Cut & Run" Romney should have told him it's a common military tool called an "EXIT STRATEGY".
Exit Strategies, by their very nature take into consideration which goals must be met to be able to start a troop drawdown. This by it's very nature does include approximate timetables, but this information very definately is not made public. All good military experts work this out (hopefully before even sending troops into a conflict) for every military excursion. There is a world of difference between "Cut & Run" and an "Exit Strategy".
A side note is that Clinton failed to do this in Bosnia, and we're still there.
SKCM(SS), USN Retired
I think huckabee will lose MORE inertia before tuesday.
I think, unfortunatly, that no matter how that argument ends McCain wins.
Romney could win the points 100% but McCain will get the perception of win because he was a POW.
Huckabee needs to drop out but he will not because he has personal power with the potential of being a spoiler.
If his 200 votes become the lynchpin, he can buy the VP slot.
Fred Thompson: Huckabee is not a True Conservative
But in terms of social policies taxes and illegal immigration and in terms of his view as how the world works, as best as I can determine it, we don't share those views at all.
Reagan Conservatives: Huckabee is NOT one of us
"Mike Huckabee is a Christian socialist. He is a good man, but with a Big Government heart. He is the most liberal of all the Republican presidential candidates on economic issues..."
POWERS: “And another issue that’s come up is that you had previously been lobbying President Bush to lift the embargo on Cuba. And then in a recent debate said the opposite. What changed?”
HUCKABEE: “What changed was I’m running for president.”
Painful death of the Republican Party
Presidential candidate Mike Huckabee has taken to calling himself a “fiscal conservative,” but who ever heard of a fiscal conservative who raised taxes and spending through the roof while governor of Arkansas? Mike Huckabee is also calling himself “a different kind of Republican,” but that’s just a codeword for a big-government Republican who wants to cover up his tax-and-spend record with folksy talking points and one-liners. Sorry Tax Hike Mike. No dice.
http://www.taxhikemike.org/
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