[JohnnyZ]

The Field poll is "much-respected" because it always leans liberal. It's often wrong. By a lot.

True that.

I think it's pretty even between Romney and McCain, depending on how big turnout is.

[Rome2000]

I'm pretty sure the polling is under sampling the latino vote.

They will come out big for him.

[freespirited]

I think it's pretty even between Romney and McCain, depending on how big turnout is.

I think you are right. But half the votes will already have been cast when the polls open due to early voting. During the early voting period, McCain was in the lead, which more likely than not will give him the edge.

SurveyUSA polled early voters as of 1/27. They had voted for McCain over Romney by 10 points. If their poll is accurate 29% of voters had already cast ballots as of that date.

I think early voting helped McCain in FL also, as Romney looked like he might have been picking up steam in the final hours there.