The headline of the Bloomberg article reads: "Harper May Be Toppled as Canada Lawmakers Debate Economy, War." Indeed, due to a sluggish economy and discontent over the country's continued military presence in Afghanistan, Canada's minority parties are thinking about bringing down the government in the Spring. In a parliamentary system like theirs, national elections can be brought about anytime if the ruling coalition loses a confidence vote; being a minority ruling coalition-holding the most seats of any party, but not more than half-is a particularly tenuous, and usually temporary, condition that makes national elections in Canada this year a very real possibility. What does this have to do with Canadian energy trusts? In the bizarro-world of Canada's current energy politics, the return to power of the Liberal party would be a positive for this sector. Why? Ever since their Halloween, 2006 announcement changing the tax status of energy trusts starting in 2011 (subsequently passed into law early in 2007), rhetoric on the topic from conservatives has been so strident as to prevent any possibility of their backtracking and altering their plan.
Thus, the Liberals have filled the void, promising to either extend that conversion deadline out to 2017 or to significantly decrease the trusts' post-2011 tax rate. Either of these would represent huge positives for the trusts and this strange situation of the liberals-as-energy-trust-defenders explains why many life-long conservatives from the Albertan energy patch are devoted to helping bring down this government.
All that said, while national elections are increasingly likely, they are not a done deal by any stretch. In fact, all you need to know for now was said in the last paragraph of the above-referenced article:
A survey conducted this month by the Strategic Counsel for the Globe and Mail newspaper showed the Liberals with 30 percent voter support, compared with 36 percent for the Conservatives. The poll of 1,000 Canadians has a margin of error of 3.1 percent age points.
Unless those poll numbers start showing the Liberals with an advantage, national elections will remain merely an idea; no minority party is going to choose to bring on an election knowing it will not prevail. Such numbers can change very rapidly in Canada, however.
Don't rush out and buy energy trusts based on the possibility of a change in power north of the border. For now, this is merely a developing story to watch.
A very big one.
Unfortunately, comments by a PM or Minister about a case before one of these “tribunals” is regarded as being on a par with commenting on an active court case. If he’s smart, he’ll hand the Canadian Human Rights Commission lots of rope- if they make an especially outrageous ruling he’ll have the ammo to scrap it for good.
Realisticly, I don’t think there is much more he can do than appoint more freedom minded people when he gets the chance. Anything more will likely be fearmongered into having the Liberals take power again.