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To: DoughtyOne

Do you prefer the WTA statewide as opposed to the WTA in each CD and statewide for at large delegates?


41 posted on 02/05/2008 10:54:14 AM PST by deport ( -- Cue Spooky Music--)
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To: deport

I’m not sure what the WTA stand for, so let me answer your question like this. I think it will answer your question.

Let’s say I’m a candidate and I only have so much time or finances to spend. This being the case, I start thinking about what my serious downsides will be if I don’t campaign for a certain state. If I go to Missouri and win, I can win 15 electoral (just an example, I don’t know it’s actual delegats / electors) votes and the other candidate won’t win any. That makes Missouri (or any state that does give 15 electoral votes) as important as California. Why waste time in California if a smaller effort can garner the same plus / minus impact?

California has 54 electoral votes. I think you can look at nomination delegates in about the same manner.

What happens if I don’t campaign in California? I may lose a few districts. Is that devistating? I don’t think so. If won districts achieve a portion of the overall electoral votes or delegates, I only stand to lose a portion of them.

If I go campaign in the state and work my arse off, I can only expect to win about two thirds of the districts at best. One third will generally agree with the alternative. If more agree with the alternative, it makes my benefit of working in the state even less.

Without going to California, I could probably expect to win 40%. By going I would probably at best only win 60%. What’s the spread then?

If I win 40% I would get about 21 electoral votes, or a comparative of delegates. If I win 60% I would get about 32 electoral votes, or a compative of delegates.

The spread is on 11 electoral votes. Anotherwords any state that gives out 11 or more electoral votes, suddenly becomes as important as California to me. Why should I go to California and work my butt off, when I can expend the same amount of effort in three states that give me all of their 12 electoral votes. 11 electoral votes or 36? Hmmm, where should I spend my time?

Now, if all of California’s 54 electoral votes or the comparative delegates are mine if I win, suddenly California becomes as important as four plus 12 delegate states. All of a sudden the state becomes a must. I cannot afford to let the other guy make a clean sweep in the state.

That’s why I think it is important to have all the eggs go to the winner.


45 posted on 02/05/2008 11:16:22 AM PST by DoughtyOne (McCain: RNC will adore him. Get ready for McCain day in photos & Prayer threads. Furball isle 08.)
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