Posted on 02/06/2008 2:14:03 PM PST by CitizenUSA
I believe conservatives are overlooking the real issue in this election. As we battle over which of the remaining three are worthy of office, we should step back and consider how we came to this tragic point.
#1) We allowed Iowa and New Hampshire to vet our candidates.
These two states are hardly representative of mainstream Republican voters, yet the early primaries focus media attention and give free PR to the winners. As Rudy Guliani learned, candidates ignore these early races at their own peril. On the other hand, fighting to win over the atypical voters in Iowa and NH burns up campaign funds needed for future races (where the candidates have broader appeal).
Solution: Stop the push for earlier primaries. Divide the states into groups that represent a greater cross section of Republicans, and stagger these grouped primaries over several weeks. For example, there could be six primary days spread out over 12 weeks. Roughly eight states, selected so that each region is equally represented, would vote per primary day. Calls for a single, nationwide primary date should be resisted as this would allow media-hyped "surge" candidates to win before voters have time to winnow the field and better educate themselves on the issues.
#2 Open primaries, especially in early states, allowed independents to sway the election. Why should independents and crossover voters have equal say in Republican primaries, especially when their votes naturally favor moderate candidates?
Solution: Force all states to restrict their primaries to registered Republicans only. Establish a cutoff date several months before the first primary to register party affiliation (no election day "conversions"). This will limit the primaries to party faithful and encourage "fence sitters" to join.
#3 "Winner Take All" primaries distorted the vote, giving some states greater power than others. For example, a marginal winner in a "Winner Takes All" state can end up with far more delegates than a dominate candidate in another state. Plus, moderate Republican states like New York, New Jersey, Missouri, Connecticut and Delaware are able to increase their power over states that split delegates. Under the existing system, a candidate with literally millions of votes can end up with zero delegates.
Solution: Force all states to use the same formula to apportion delegates. Either all states use "Winner Takes All" or none do.
If it chooses to do so, I believe the Republican Party has the power to compel states to comply. For example, states that refuse to vote on a level field with everyone else could have their votes voided or reduced at the convention. This can't be fixed entirely at the state level so long as some states refuse to play by the rules. It requires change on the national level.
Of course, moderate elements within the party will resist these changes, because they know the system is tilted in their favor. Nevertheless, something must be done to fix the primaries if conservatives ever want a say equal to their representation in the party.
Links (for additional info):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_primary http://www.thegreenpapers.com/Definitions.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_primary http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/02/opinion/02sun1.html?ex=1346385600&en=86110f55c5aa0f30&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink
Your comments are greatly appreciated.
It is broken with no fix in sight as long as primaries are open and winner take all. There also should not be a primary before Feb. 15th of the election year.
> These two states are hardly representative of mainstream
> Republican voters
I fully agree, and I live in New Hampshire.
Most “Republicans” here are to the left of Hillary.
To them, McCain is an “arch conservative”.
Even the once conservative Manchester Union Leader, the newspaper of record for New Hampshire, endorsed the flaming RINO McCain.
Bill Loeb must be spinning in his grave.
There are so many gray pony-tailed leftovers from the sixties around, they outnumber us two-to-one.
The youth have so many tattoos, they look like wallpaper commercials.
They have so much metal sticking in their faces and lips and tongues and eyebrows and belly buttons, they look like victims from a bomb attack on a machine shop.
This is NOT the bucolic, rural New Hampsire I moved to thirty years ago.
The thing is the RNC wants it like this.
And a nice vanity it is! Thanks.
Yours are great solutions for the future, but for now, here is what we need to do:
The combined vote totals of Romney and Huckabee are evidence that conservatives outnumbered liberal Republicans who favored McCain.
Since it appears there was collusion between liberal McCain and perceived conservative, Huckabee to deny Romney the conservative vote, Republican conservative rank and file need to rise up, just like we did over Harriet Miers and amnesty and demand a runoff between McCain and Romney.
It’s either a runoff, or let McCain work out some back room deal with Huckabee and decide the fate of our party. Conservative talk radio can tweak the left and take the lead in calling for a runoff primary between liberal McCain and the one preferred by a majority of conservatives, Romney.
The problem isn’t so much that “weird” voters in NH have their say. The problem is that the media attention directed at the Iowa and NH primaries ends up favoring certain types of candidates and giving them free PR at the expense of others. Rudy Giuliani certainly proved the point this race.
I’m not saying it’s impossible for a true conservative to get nominated. Reagan proved an extremely popular candidate can overcome the disadvantages. Unfortunately, not many Reagan-types are waiting in the wings for a shot.
Huckabee is deliberately playing spoiler to Romney in the hopes of being the VP Candidate if he helps hand the reins to McCain. Such a “Christian” thing to do. Stick it to your own party as long as it benefits you in the end. Huck should have the good grace that Edwards had and move out of the way - but the bottom line is that he is just too selfish.
Nephi: “Since it appears there was collusion between liberal McCain and perceived conservative, Huckabee to deny Romney the conservative vote, Republican conservative rank and file need to rise up, just like we did over Harriet Miers and amnesty and demand a runoff between McCain and Romney.”
Unless you have some knowledge otherwise, there’s no way to “force” a runoff. We are stuck with this flawed primary process this time, but we can try to fix it for the future. Honestly, I’m not even sure how to go about fixing it, but I think conservatives need to do something so a mccain-type “maverick” can’t buck his own party and still win the nomination with independents and moderates. As you wrote, conservatives ARE the majority in the party.
Thank you for positive ideas.
It is greatly appreciated,
We can crack this nut.
Some other things I have been thinking...
We have been asleep at the wheel and we need to start early on choosing conservatives of our own choice to carry the fire. Not let the MSM pick them for us. And position them where it counts most.
I think we have been distracted by the war, by democrats attacks on our troops, and we just forgot to back the right people.. early! We got complacent and we got bit.
And I think we can fix these things quicker then people think.
One thing that the leftists do to us is undermine and destroy conservatives early on, like George Allen and Rick Santorum.
Resolute: “There also should not be a primary before Feb. 15th of the election year.”
I agree. Several states keep trying to move up their primaries. They aren’t idiots. They know the early states have more power. What are we supposed to do? Should we let them keep pushing the primary back until it’s years before the election?
As I mentioned, I think the system is designed to increase the power of moderate states and voters at the expense of conservatives. Of course, moderates will argue it helps us pick a candidate who is more popular across the aisle. It hits at the heart of the argument between those who think only moderates can win the general election and those who think a principled conservative can win voters to our side.
Conservative Candidates=Endangered Species
Names Ash Housewares: “I think we have been distracted by the war, by democrats attacks on our troops, and we just forgot to back the right people.. early! We got complacent and we got bit.”
I agree. It’s almost as though conservative voters were asleep at the wheel, like we’ve lost faith in our ability to win. I’m certainly guilty of that.
I still believe a principled conservative can inspire people to join our cause and win a general election. However, with the primary system broken, finding and getting that candidate nominated is very difficult. Moderates have us at a disadvantage.
“Moderates have us at a disadvantage.”
If you like a level playing field, conservatism is not for you. LOL
I will fight on, it really is never ending. And right now positive, action oriented ideas and eventually solutions are the key.
We can do this.
And I think the doom and gloomers will eventually peter out here and move on.
I would rather put my energys into fixing things, not giving up.
rogue yam: “One thing that the leftists do to us is undermine and destroy conservatives early on, like George Allen and Rick Santorum.”
Yes, Santorum was a sad loss. Unless we conservatives figure out how to get it together and get involved, we will continue to have to hold our noses at the polls. That’s one of the things that disappoints me about the pundits. They are all very good at pointing out the problems, but few seem to be coming up with solutions. I’ve presented a few of mine concerning the broken primary process, but I really don’t know how to implement them. How does one actually go about changing party policy?
Perhaps a mccain nomination is the wake-up call we need!
Here’s a quote from another thread: “Most importantly, McCain won the delegate rich (and winner-take-all) states giving him a big leg up on getting to the 1,191 needed to lock up the nomination.”
If mccain deserves credit for anything, it’s for being politically astute enough to know he can win the nomination without conservatives. There’s a whole lot of activity on other threads where people vent their rage, but what about actually FIXING the problem. I know it’s not really popular to discuss primary voting systems and rules. It’s certainly more thought inducing than spewing vitriol at mccain, but we better get serious if we want to ensure it doesn’t happen to us again.
An absurd amount of candidate time, money and media attention is spent on these two states. And it starts a year or more in advance, especially in Iowa where candidates homestead to start building an organization to help them win at the caucuses. Candidates spend months in these two states, while the rest of the nation pays little attention until the final few weeks before the votes.
One result is, most other states have seen little of the candidates when they start to vote. NH and Iowa probably received more attention and candidate time than all Super Tuesday states combined (I’d bet that’s true, no stats). I think Mitt suffered from this since he was little known in the South and Midwest. He still did well in many states, but could have done much better with more appearances.
I think there should be five or six primary voting days, with a mix of eight or so states each day. Maybe a north to south swath of states, from NE to Florida, and other mixes of states. Maybe some east to west, or a block of states in the central part of the US.
Several voting days, spaced a couple of weeks apart, with a mix of states each time seems far better than the full year obsession with Iowa and NH.
And screw those state’s laws that require them to be first. The sole purpose is to give them an outsized influence on the presidential race, an influence no state should have.
And screw retail politics. It’s only retail for a tiny percentage of American citizens.
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