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BULLISH!

http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/08/real_estate/who_can_refi/index.htm

The good news: mortgage rates are down. The bad news: it’s much harder to qualify for a refinanced loan these days.

“I’m turning away about 60% to 75% of the clients who come to me for a refi,” said Bob Moulton, president of Americana Mortgage Group on Long Island, N.Y.

The make-or-break metric for anyone looking to refinance right now is home equity - the difference between what is owed on a house and what the house is worth. But with home prices down, many homeowners have little of that precious commodity left.

“If you have an 80% loan, with a 10% home equity loan, you may not be able to refinance,” said Peter Grabel, a mortgage broker in Connecticut - especially in down markets.

Consider a homeowner who bought in Miami a year ago with 20% down. Home prices have fallen 15% there in the past year, wiping out three-quarters of the equity. Lenders, who want collateral that’s worth more than the value of the loan, are wary about having so little cushion.

Indeed, appraisals are another tool that lenders are using to eliminate unqualified applicants.

“It used to be a formality,” said Grabel. “Now it’s, ‘Lets do the appraisal first and see what value comes in.” Lenders are scrutinizing them to a degree unheard of during the boom. They don’t want to lend $160,000 on an appraised value of $200,000 unless they’re sure the house is truly worth that.