As the strike ends,
ratings take a slide
Big Five networks sink 22 percent in adults 18-49
By Toni Fitzgerald
Feb 13, 2008
The long writers’ strike may be over, but its effects are really starting to be felt in primetime, where viewership for the Big Five networks has begun to plunge.
During the second week of February sweeps, all five networks were down compared to the same week last year. And though several new shows are set to premiere in the coming weeks, the slide could well continue until fresh scripted programming comes back in late March and early April.
The Big Five combined for an average 13.7 adults 18-49 rating last week, the week ended Feb. 10, off 22 percent from their combined 17.5 average the same week last year.
CBS, which had only two original scripted series last week, was off the most, slipping 38 percent, from a 4.5 to a 2.8, and the CW fell the second most, 31 percent, from a 1.3 to a 0.9, though 18-49 is not its target demographic.
ABC was off 26 percent, from a 3.8 to a 2.8, with NBC down 17 percent, from a 3.0 to a 2.5. Even Fox, which has won every week since “American Idol” returned last month, slipped 4 percent, from a 4.9 to a 4.7.
The steep declines would seem to contradict the networks’ long-held claim that they could get by with reality shows until the strike ended. While NBC’s “American Gladiators” and Fox’s “Moment of Truth” are hits, despite falling a bit in each outing, there have been other disappointments, even among returning shows.
CBS’s “Survivor” had its second-lowest-rated premiere ever, averaging a 4.8 rating against minimal competition in the Thursday 8 p.m. slot. And the network’s “The New Adventures of Old Christine” slipped 16 percent from last year’s average in its third-season premiere.
Meanwhile, new reality shows like ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars” spinoff “Dance Wars: Bruno vs. Carrie Ann” simply haven’t caught on. That show averaged a mere 2.4 in its latest outing, barely half what a typical “Stars” episode pulls.
Viewers have been uninterested in new scripted programming, too. Two “Sex and the City” knockoffs, ABC’s “Cashmere Mafia” and NBC’s “Lipstick Jungle,” pulled fewer total viewers than “Sex” in its heyday. CBS’s “Welcome to the Captain” averaged a 2.6 for its premiere last Monday, only managing to match its lead-in, a rerun of “How I Met Your Mother.”
The coming weeks have a few promising programs.
The CW premieres the new season of its top show, “America’s Next Top Model,” next week, while “Stars” returns next month on ABC. CBS will carry March Madness, the NCAA basketball tournament that knocks out regular scripted programming for several weeks.
But there’s also the possibility that ratings will continue their decline. NBC’s “Gladiators” ends its run this weekend, to be replaced by new reality show “My Dad is Better Than Your Dad,” which critics have already dubbed a miss. Fox likely won’t return “24” at all this season, removing one of its top shows.
And ABC will run out of episodes of its top first quarter show, “Lost,” in just five weeks.
Meanwhile, in broadcast ratings for the week ended Feb. 10:
Among adults 18-49, Fox was first with a 4.7 rating and a 12 share, followed by ABC and CBS at 2.8/7, NBC at 2.5/6, Univision at 1.6/4, CW at 0.9/2, Telemundo at 0.5/1, TeleFutura and MyNetworkTV at 0.4/1 and Ion and Azteca at 0.1/0.
Among adults 18-34, Fox led with a 4.3 rating and a 12 share, followed by ABC at 2.2/6, CBS at 2.0/6, NBC at 1.9/5, Univision at 1.8/5, CW at 0.9/3, Telemundo at 0.5/2, Telefutura and MyNetworkTV at 0.4/1 and Ion and Azteca at 0.1/0.
Among adults 25-54, Fox was first with a 5.2 rating and a 13 share, followed by CBS at 3.5/8, ABC at 3.3/8, NBC at 2.9/7, Univision at 1.5/4, CW at 0.9/2, MyNetworkTV and Telemundo at 0.5/1, TeleFutura at 0.3/1 and Ion and Azteca at 0.1/0.
Top five English-language Big Five shows (18-49s): 1. Fox’s “American Idol - Tuesday” 11.2; 2. Fox’s “American Idol - Wednesday” 10.5; 3. Fox’s “House” 9.0; 4. Fox’s “Moment of Truth” 7.1; Tie-5. ABC’s “Lost” and CBS’s “Grammy Awards” 6.5.
Top five English-language Big Five shows (total viewers): 1. Fox’s “American Idol - Tuesday” 27.91 million; 2. Fox’s “American Idol - Wednesday” 26.28 million; 3. Fox’s “House” 23.16 million; 4. CBS’s “Grammy Awards” 17.17 million; 5. Fox’s “Moment of Truth” 16.62 million.
Top five Live+7 English-language Big Five shows (Households, week ended Jan. 27): 1. Fox’s “American Idol - Tuesday” 16.7; 2. Fox’s “American Idol - Wednesday” 15.7; 3. Fox’s “Moment of Truth” 13.2; 4. CBS’s “60 Minutes” 9.6; 5. NBC’s “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” 9.2.
Top five Live+7 English-language Big Five shows (18-49s, week ended Jan. 27): 1. Fox’s “American Idol - Tuesday” 12.4; 2. Fox’s “American Idol - Wednesday” 11.5; 3. Fox’s “Moment of Truth” 10.5; 4. NBC’s “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit” 5.3; 5. ABC’s “Extreme Makeover: Home Edition” 5.2.
Show on the rise: “Charlie and the Chocolate Factory,” ABC, Saturday 8:30 p.m. The Johnny Depp version of the classic story averaged a 2.4 rating among viewers 18-49, up 26 percent from the 1.9 “War of the Worlds” averaged in the slot the week before.
Show on the decline: “Eli Stone” ABC, Thursday 10 p.m. Up against the low-rated premiere of NBC’s “Lipstick Jungle,” ABC’s midseason drama fell 18 percent week-to-week among 18-49s, from a 4.0 to a 3.3.
For readers,
the outlook’s looking iffy
They don’t see ratings tumbling through March
By Lisa Snedeker
Feb 13, 2008
The writers’ strike is indeed over, but there’s little sense of a burden being lifted among media planners and buyers.
The big worry is where the networks go from here, with ratings now falling and the coming season looming ahead with not much in the way of new-series development in the pipeline.
The networks face the twin challenges of getting existing shows back into production and cooking up new show concepts to present to buyers this spring ahead of the upfront market. Can they do it all?
Perhaps, but just how well is another matter, say media planners and buyers. They’re not overly confident.
That’s the outcome of a poll Media Life ran late last week when it seemed certain the strike was about to end.
Readers were asked: Will the networks have enough time to patch together good schedules with promising new shows, or will they be forced to renew struggling programs that otherwise would have been axed, just to fill their hours?
“The networks will throw together a patchwork of shows and trot them out with a lot of fanfare,” wrote one respondent. “More of those than usual will be gone as better work filters through later in the season.”
Wrote another: “A lot of middling shows will be returned for fall with more new entries in midseason than there have been in the past.”
And yet another sniped: “Considering the drivel that is usually slopped down on the fall schedule after careful consideration, planning, and with creative abandon, I wouldn’t expect it to be much worse than most years. I think our expectations should remain fairly low. Expect to be underwhelmed.”
But some readers were more upbeat, all that said. As one opined, “I think they’ll have time if the strike ends this weekend to put together some fairly good schedules.” And another wrote: “There will definitely be time for the networks to put together a handful of new programs. The new programs next fall will not be any worse than any other year.”
A majority of readers, 70 percent, think the networks will end the season in May as usual, rather than extending it into the summer, for the simple reason of cost.
As for when fresh episodes will begin appearing in primetime, the best bet is April, according to readers. It will take that long to get scripts written and into production and the episodes shot and edited.
The question: “If the writers’ strike ends over weekend, how soon will we start seeing new scripted content?
More than half, 60 percent, thought April—27 percent early April and 22 percent in mid-April, and 11 percent late April. But 29 percent were more optimistic, predicting new episodes would begin airing in March.
Readers also think the writers came out ahead after three months on the picket lines, but it was hardly an overwhelming margin: 56 percent versus 44 percent who thought the studio bosses were the winners.
Interestingly, though, most readers don’t think the networks will be taking big hits in the ratings in the time it takes to get fresh episodes back on the air.
The question: By the end of March, how much will adults 18-49 ratings have suffered from the strike?
The largest share, 44 percent, thought the declines would be between 6 percent and 10 percent. That’s rosier than most forecasters have been predicting.
Just 20 percent thought they would be off between 10 and 15 percent.
And an even larger share, 24 percent, believed ratings would decline a modest 1 to 5 percent.
Among the new shows, the most promising among media buyers and planners was Fox’s “Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles,” the top choice of 30 percent of respondents. Ranking second was ABC’s “Eli Stone,” at 24 percent, and third, at 18 percent, was none.
The least-promising new show: ABC’s “Cashmere Mafia,” at 33 percent, with CBS’s Welcome to the Captain” not all that far behind at 22 percent. Third was NBC’s “Baby Borrowers” at 17 percent.
Readers believe ABC’s returning “Lost” has the most to gain airing original episodes again reruns on the other networks, at 48 percent. Fox’s “American Idol” was second at 31 percent. No other show came even close.