The Un-Democrats

IBD ^ | February 13, 2008

[Kaslin]

Politics: "There Will Be Blood" is the title of one of Hollywood's highest-rated films, but it might just as well describe the messy chaos the Democrats could find themselves in during their August convention in Denver.

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After eight primary wins in a row, Barack Obama has the momentum. But he hasn't sewn it up yet. Nor is Hillary Clinton necessarily dead, despite the growing number of obituaries written for her.

The Associated Press has Obama with a lead of 26 delegates, with 1,224 pledged to him vs. 1,198 to Clinton. It takes 2,025 of 4,090 to win it all, so both need just over 800 more.

If Obama keeps grabbing states, he could gain the nomination before the convention. But Clinton has a first-rate political organization, is favored among women (who make up 57% of registered Democrats) and has bet the ranch on delegate-rich Texas and Ohio, which vote on March 4. In both states, she's using her extensive ties to the Latino community and organized labor to muscle votes, and currently leads the polls.

These are big prizes, accounting for 16% of the delegates needed to win it all. Add Wisconsin, where she's running neck-and-neck with Obama, and Pennsylvania, another delegate-heavy state where she polls well, and Clinton could have 80% or more of the vote needed to win the nomination.

In short, Obama has the charisma, but Hillary has the organization. And there's the Democrats' dilemma.

Of the delegates needed to win, 796, or 39% of the total, are "super delegates" — members of Congress, party functionaries and activists who are technically free to vote as they wish and beholden to no one, at least not directly.

[bill1952]

members of Congress, party functionaries and activists who are technically free to vote as they wish

Yes. Technically.

They will technically vote 2 - 1 for hillary because the clintons have the past associations, networking, deals, and debts to make it so.

[Signalman]

And the FBI files.

[Signalman]

And the FBI files.

[Brad from Tennessee]

[. . .The Democratic Party chooses its nominee not by open vote, but by backroom maneuvering by party hacks, contributors and pols, and questionable rule changes. The result could be something like civil war within the party.]

The rage could go outside the party and spread into the streets with riots in cities like L.A., Detroit, D.C., etc.

[Verginius Rufus]

Bad things happen to people who get in the Clintons’ way. No one has died under mysterious circumstances for crossing Obama. That could make a difference. Like anyone else, the super-delegates want to live.

[justiceseeker93]

It takes 2,025 of 4,090 to win it all...

Either the person writing this article must have flunked elementary arithmetic, or the Dummycrat honchos writing the convention rules did.

[justiceseeker93]

It takes 2,025 of 4,090 to win it all...

Either the person writing this article must have flunked elementary arithmetic, or the Dummycrat honchos writing the convention rules did.

[IMissPresidentReagan]

But I thought the Democrats were the ones fixing our educational system. /s

[Albion Wilde]

The point is, the race could be very close. This leads to a scenario in which Obama wins the national primary vote, both in the popular tally and delegate count, but loses the nomination at the convention... Think about that: The Democratic Party chooses its nominee not by open vote, but by backroom maneuvering by party hacks, contributors and pols, and questionable rule changes..... The media may fixate on the ideological rifts within the GOP. But the far more likely prospect is that Democrats could be torn apart for reasons of both ideology and race. There will be blood, indeed.

I love it. It's the Bush-Gore scenario, back to slap them in the butt.

[Albion Wilde]

The rage could go outside the party and spread into the streets with riots in cities like L.A., Detroit, D.C., etc.

Oh, bite your tongue! I lived through it the last time, when MLK was assassinated, and it changed my life unalterably. I'm too old for another diaspora from formerly inhabitable territory.

[justiceseeker93]

But I thought the Democrats were the ones fixing our educational system./s

I was thinking along similar lines, like the people who can't do the arithmetic were products of "the new math," which was one of the first assaults on educational standards. Well, isn't it fitting that one of these two candidates may have to pay the price for their perverse "liberal" educational ideas. Society as a whole has been paying a huge price for dumbed-down education for quite some time.

[Brad from Tennessee]

Tell me about it. I was in Vietnam when it happened and there was actually some insurection in Danang and Saigon.

[justiceseeker93]

The rage could go on outside the party and spread into the streets...

That scenario reminds me of the 1968 riot outside the Dem convention in Chicago. Probably helped Nixon beat Humphrey that memorable year.

[Brad from Tennessee]

[Probably helped Nixon beat Humphrey that memorable year.]

The Gene McCarthy supporters were alienated by the whole fracas. A lot of them ended up as Yippies and outlaw radicals.

[Albion Wilde]

Tell me about it. I was in Vietnam when it happened and there was actually some insurection in Danang and Saigon.

That's a new one. Are you saying that enlisted men of color were upset and went off? The whole thing was kind of understandable, but it just went on too long, and then the opportunists got into it....