Hezbollah Retribution: Beware the Ides of March (Threats Warnings Against Potential Jewish Targets)

STRATFOR ^ | February 19, 2008 1613 GMT | Burton & Stewart

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Following the Feb. 12 assassination of Imad Mughniyah, one of Hezbollah’s top military commanders, many threats and warnings have been issued concerning a retribution attack against Israel, which has been blamed for — or credited with — the attack. The threats have come from Hezbollah and Iranian leaders, while the warnings have come from the Israeli and U.S. governments.

Although the unfolding story continues to make headlines, the warnings we have seen have not included any time frame. This means that most of the people concerned about them will be on alert in the near term but will, as is human nature, begin to relax as time passes and no retaliatory attack materializes. Organizations such as Hezbollah, however, typically do not retaliate immediately. Even in a case of a government with a professional and well-armed military, retaliatory strikes take time to plan, approve and implement. For example, nearly two weeks passed before U.S. cruise missiles struck targets in Afghanistan and Sudan following the Aug. 7, 1998, al Qaeda bombing of the U.S. Embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

Even an organization such as Hezbollah that has created contingency attack plans needs time to dispatch operatives, conduct surveillance, gather materials, construct a bomb and then employ it. Indeed, a review of Hezbollah’s past retaliatory attacks demonstrates a lag of at least a month between the causi belli and the retaliatory attacks. In our estimation, therefore, any Hezbollah retaliatory strike will occur in mid-March at the earliest, though Hezbollah sympathizers not acting as part of the organization could respond more rapidly with attacks that require less planning and preparation.

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You already may know this so is for those that do not:

At the Ramaz School’s three buildings on New York’s Upper East Side, there have been armed security guards outside and other guards inside for several years, said Kenneth Rochlin, the school’s administrator. Visitors must have appointments.

Israel’s message was a reminder of the importance of paying attention

Andrea Policky, executive assistant at Temple Israel, the largest Reform Congregation in the northeastern United States, said its security staff has been placed on high alert.

“They are aware of the situation,” she said. “The security officers have been instructed on what to look for.”

In California, the Los Angeles Police Department had not received any specific threats related to Mughniyeh’s death but was increasing its presence at Jewish institutions, malls and ports, said Deputy Chief Michael Downing, who heads the department’s counterterror unit.

The Anti-Defamation League for several counties in Southern California sent out an e-mail warning to Jewish institutions urging vigilance.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/954429.html

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BTTT...

[Edgerunner]

“Hezbollah has the right to retaliate anywhere in the world and in any way it sees fit.”

So do we...and we don't need to use women and children for weapons or cover!