“If McCain (the presumptive nominee—do the math) ...”
Here’s the math:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html
The hard count is the one that matters. Everything else can change between now and the convention. If Texas conservatives don’t concede en masse, it’ll be at least two months before McCain could possibly lock up the nomination.
I still don’t understand how the Times is doing their count. For example, they show Romney with 23 michigan votes. But the michigan contest did not do a final assignment of delegates. And Michigan DID just do their assignment, and McCain got most of them.
Louisiana just did an assignment of delegates as well, and McCain got most of them.
At least they recognized that Iowa hasn’t assigned any delegates yet.