I sure hope you’re right. The only problem is voters don’t always vote logically. They get emotionally caught up in supporting the Democrats candidate.
He is also in money trouble because he signed up for public funding and now can’t get out of that trap.
I wonder if he will pick Bloomberg to pay for his campaign?
Shh! We don’t want to lose Obama like we lost Dean!
I realize that this is an echo chamber, but underestimating Obama's appeal and message is the same mistake Hillary has made on her way to her "coronation" as the Dem nominee.
McCain is a weak, flawed candidate who only received 31% of the primary vote prior to the Potomac primaries. The Rep base is far from being energized and many Reps will either stay home or not vote for the top spot. An Obama candidacy will not energize the Rep base like Hillary would.
I followed the McCain campaign four days each in FL and SC attending almost all of his events. His audience is composed mostly of the old and veterans. His campaign style and oratory are old and boring. He is visibly an old man who is depending upon his resume to win over voters. I don't see that working in the general election.
McCain is the Republican Party maverick. Bills like McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, and McCain-Lieberman don't sell well within the party. "Since 1964, Republicans have won 7 of 10 presidential elections. They lost in 1976, 1992 and 1996. Each time, the party was saddled with a standard-bearer – Ford, Bush ’41, Dole – that a large part of the base couldn’t stand. "
Obama is young and energetic. He will be appealing to an energized base that is showing up in the primaries by two to three to one compared to the Reps. Turnout was the key to the Dems retaking Congress in 2006 and they will have even larger turnouts in November. What are the issues?
The Iraq War: More than 60% of the Anmerican people believe it was a costly mistake. They want us out. Although we conservatives support McCain's position on the war, it is actually a negative for him in attracting independent and Dem voters. His statement that we may have to stay there a 100 years will be used against him over and over. Obama will have a net gain on this issue.
Illegal immigration: McCain and Obama have essentially the same position on the issue. They voted for both amnesty bills, S 2611 and McCain-Kennedy, i.e., conmprehensive immigration reform. This could have been a wedge issue for the Reps if they had nominated the right candidate.
Health care: With the growing number of uninsured, the rising cost of health care, and Medicare about to go bust in a decade, there will be a confluence of forces pushing for national health care, including US businesses, which want to get out of providing health care. The fact that McCain voted against the Medicare Prescription Drug program may endear him to conservatives, but it will not play well to AARP members. Obama's "plan" will be viewed more favorably by more Americans than McCain's health service accounts.
The economy: More than likely, we will still be in a downturn or just emerging from one by November. The Reps will get blamed no matter what happens, which will help Obama.
Global Warming: Both candidates essentiall agree on the issue. I can see both of them proudly saying that they voted aganst drilling in ANWAR and favor a cap and trade system in carbon credits. This may play well among Dems and some independents, but most of the Rep base will be turned off, which won't help McCain. And it will hurt Rep candidates running on the ticket with McCain who will have to run against many of McCain's positions.
Bush factor: With approval ratings in the low 30s, Reps will suffer at the polls. McCain will have to run not only against Obama but also Bush, which will further depress the base. Add to that the fact that about 30 Rep Congressmen are retiring this year, and you get the feeling that the Dems are going to ride a tidal wave into the WH.
The uncorruptible John McCain: Some of the stories are starting to come out concerning McCain's relationships with lobbyists. There will be a steady drip, drip, drip, leading up to November and charges that McCain is not as squeaky clean as he likes to pretend. The Keating Five scandal will be brought up again. Rick Renzi's current legal difficulties will add to it. And his association with folks like Juan Hernandez will drive voters away from him.
In sum, we are going to see a reprise of 1996 with the old, war hero, Washington-establishment pol going against the young, hip, energetic young man who represents the future and change against the past and the status quo. It ain't going to be pretty.