There’s a bunch of stuff I’ve seen out of the Fed and other analysts on the CRE (commercial real estate) concentration. It’s not tied up into one nice paper just at this time.
But here’s a USA Today article on the issue:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/banking/2006-05-17-commercial-real-estate-usat_x.htm
Basically, the situation is this: as the mortgage brokers and money center banks squeezed more and more smaller banks out of the mortgage loan business, the smaller banks started catering to commercial real estate loan accounts.
Commercial real estate activity, esp. building of various mini-malls and the associated development that tail-ends some of this housing build-up is going to drop off or the projects are going to fail. As a result, some of these thifts and regional banks are going to have some real problems, really quickly, because they’ve over-committed their capital resources in some cases by 300%+.
They just had a spot on CNBC about this. Some expert (missed name) said 180-200b in losses in this so you may be onto something.