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I would like to see what we have poll wise from the same firms. Early on, Paul’s camp leaked that Peden was up by 11, then Peden’s camp said it was closer than that. The problem with all the polls is we aren’t comparing apples to apples if we don’t know the details. When I am down in the district, I see a lot of average folks who like Peden, and Peden signs in front of real houses (versus Paul signs on right-a-ways.) There is one major factor though that I will admit will cause Peden some harm (besides the fact he is running locally against someone who basically has a national grassroots behind him), that would be the University of Houston (Clear Lake).. technically it is one district over across 45, but a lot of students live in Friendswood (I know, I rent to several of them.) At the same time, however, you have a lot of Johnson Space Center employees in Friendswood too, so that may wash. Peden seems to have a clinch on NASA employees while Paul has the college students.

Early on, Paul’s camp leaked that Peden was up by 11, then Peden’s camp said it was closer than that.

Again, that was just Pajamas Media and their "source". Peden himself said in the interview, when asked about that poll, that it was probably just made to make Paul's followers feel it's desperate and increase campaign donations. Also Mark Elam, Paul's congressional campaign manager, very firmly disputed any kind of Peden lead both here and here. The internal numbers he cites are pretty close to what this poll shows (Paul ahead of Peden by 30+ percentage points).

Peden seems to have a clinch on NASA employees while Paul has the college students.

Paul seems to have a clinch on every group except people who say education is their biggest issue. Paul leads in every age groups (the worst one he does in is among people 30-45, where he beats Peden by 19 points), every race and among every issue; again except education.