MARKET SNAPSHOT: U.S. Stock Rally Fuels Dow To 8th-biggest Point Leap Ever

CNNmoney.com ^ | April 01, 2008 | CNN

[Berlin_Freeper]

U.S. stocks on Tuesday celebrated the start of a new quarter, rallying as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s equity offer drew a warm reception, fueling the Dow to its 8th-biggest point jump ever.

"Clearly there is a recognition the credit markets are healing -- usually stocks begin to rally about six months before the end of a slowdown," said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial Services.

"And with earning season less than a week away, and we haven't heard a flood of negative pre-announcements," Kleintop said.

The Dow industrials climbed 391.47 points, or 3.2%, to 12,654.36, with all 30 components ending higher, with shares of Citigroup Inc. (C) leading the way, up 11.3%.

[Berlin_Freeper]

Meanwhile on DRUDGE from a UK paper:

USA 2008: The Great Depression

[Dr. Ursus]

WHAT’S THIRD ON THE MSM AND DEMS TALKING POINTS FOR THE 2008
ELECTION?

[CharlesThe Hammer]

That line of dismal wretches looking down at their shoes whilst waiting for the “food stamp window” to open is propaganda of the crudest sort. One need only drive about with the radio on in the car to hear the numerous ads soliciting new “customers” for benefits like food stamps. That’s right folks, the agency dispensing food stamps uses a substantial portion of its budget to actually woo woebegone welfare applicants! Oh, the humanity...families huddled in apartments with only one or two air conditioners betwixt them; stacked-in nearly two or three to a room...they squint before their conventional color TVs, humiliated because they can’t yet afford 54”LCD flat screens...they wander the streets in the squalor of subsidized public transit and used automobiles...a testament to the tragedy of 95.5% employment...capitalism in America is doomed! To the barricades comrade!

[Fiddlstix]

[RoseofTexas]

There’ll be gnashing of teeth at the RAT hole tonight!

[DoughtyOne]

I realize there are some reasons to be cautious about the current economic situation in the U.S., but it sure for the life of me looks and sounds like it’s been blown all out of proportion. Every election year the left starts this subliminal rant that by the time the election comes around sounds like the nation is going to go belly up within days. And them somehow, it survives for another four years.

Enough already...

[Proud_USA_Republican]

Talk about a massive bull trap. Banks last night announcing more billions in writedowns and financials having to perform stock dilutions by the billions just to survive. But whoo-hooo, they didn’t go completely under!!! Its the obviously the end of the credit crisis now that UBS and Lehman live to see another day. Everythings awesome so everyone get out there and buy-buy-buy! I’m sure this afternoon Kudlow will declare this was a goldilocks rally and credit crisis is officially over.

[politicket]

Why are you all acting like the economy is a bed of roses right now? There are a multitude of serious issues that those with even a cursory knowledge of finance would be a little sober right now.

Instead, we have FReepers that bury their head in the sand just because "our guy" is President and it's an election year.

Just to prove my point - what great thing happened in the world today to drive a 400 point rally in the Dow? Answer - Absolutely nothing. In fact there was really bad financial news.

I pray that our nation will get on a firm financial foundation, but it's not going to happen with 4 trillion dollar federal "budgets" and a Federal Reserve that is more than happy to keep increasing the money supply - thereby driving down the value of the dollar.

You will soon see the Federal Reserve be given even more power in our country, all the way down to the local townships. Let's quit cheerleading the Republicans just because of their party name and begin looking at what God-fearing conservatives are going to stand up, be accountable, and work to get the nation out of this mess.

[politicket]

but it sure for the life of me looks and sounds like it’s been blown all out of proportion.

Based on what evidence?

I'm not trying to be argumentative, but want people to realize that things are not good in the financial world right now.

If you have solid financial reasons for your thought then fine, but don't just base things on emotions.

[Berlin_Freeper]

“8th-biggest Point Leap Ever” is worth noting.

[DoughtyOne]

Perhaps it would be a lot easier for most of us to believe that we’re headed over a cliff if that case hadn’t been made in 1992 and 2004. Now we’re in 2008 and here we go again. The great depression is upon us, we’re doomed.

The democrats have to tap this ‘fear factor’ in order to rescue us. I don’t see the need to help them make their case. Do you?

Real estate is like the stock market. It fluctuates. Sometimes it goes up, and sometimes it goes down. It’s going to rise again. As long as people don’t panic, I think we’re going to be just fine.

[politicket]

“8th-biggest Point Leap Ever” is worth noting.

I wholeheartedly agree. But I also ask myself "Why?" did it occur. Were there a boatload of incredible earnings reports? - No

A 400 point run-up on extremely negative financial news is as a poster said earlier - bull trap.

[Berlin_Freeper]

But I also ask myself "Why?"

After you calm down, read the article and know why.

[politicket]

Perhaps it would be a lot easier for most of us to believe that we’re headed over a cliff if that case hadn’t been made in 1992 and 2004. Now we’re in 2008 and here we go again. The great depression is upon us, we’re doomed.

This is a whole different ball of wax then what happened in the last few decades, and the subprime mortgage problem is just the crumbs that make the news.

The real driver behind all of this is the Federal Reserve. Our country is currently over 9 trillion dollars in debt. The interest on that debt consumes about 40 percent of our federal budget. The interest on our debt is what goes to the Federal Reserve (a.k.a. a few highly-wealthy banking families). How does our nation "manage" its debt? By issuing more interest bearing Treasury bonds. Who buys most of our Treasury bonds in exchange for Federal Reserve Notes (or what we call part of our currency)? The Federal Reserve.

We keep making our drug dealer more powerful, all because the politicians in Washington don't have the cajones to obey our U.S. Constitution.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is about to get what they have privately demanded - control of most of our financial instruments clear down to the local level.

This has nothing to do with "Democrat dirty tricks". It has to do with our nation's existence.

[politicket]

After you calm down, read the article and know why.

I have read the article. How about you telling me what your specific thoughts are on the "good news" today?

BTW...I'm perfectly calm, but tire of FReepers throwing out their irrational "it's an election year" mantra.

I have been very specific in my posts. Someone that disagrees with my analysis should be specific in theirs as well, instead of throwing around generalities.

[Berlin_Freeper]

There are signs that the credit markets are healing. It’s covered in the excerpt, you don’t even have to click the link.

[DoughtyOne]

At 56 years of age, I can tell you that I have seen this type of malady heralded about once per every five years on the average. I’ve just come to the place where I don’t buy into the sky is falling scenario like I used to.

Let’s say that you are right. What would you suggest folks do about it? Is there anything they could do about it? Of course not. This type of colapse would be impossible to cope with.

Outside of putting up supplies and water, what else is there? I’ve done that.

If our money becomes worthless and the nation tanks, I’ll be out there with every other person, having to deal with it.

I’m not going to live in fear over this. God’s will be done.

[Berlin_Freeper]

“I have been very specific in my posts. Someone that disagrees with my analysis should be specific in theirs as well, instead of throwing around generalities.”

By the way, you could have simply given your own assessment of the economy without involving taking shots at others. try it next time.

[Lou L]

WHAT’S THIRD ON THE MSM AND DEMS TALKING POINTS FOR THE 2008 ELECTION?

They usually like to march out the homeless at some point...

[Berlin_Freeper]

“If our money becomes worthless and the nation tanks, I’ll be out there with every other person, having to deal with it.”

America has been rich and America has been poor... I have told people it’s not the money that makes America great, it’s the freedom that allows for opportunity (but it sure don’t hurt!).

[DoughtyOne]

I agree with you.

I have been very critical of the moves to turn our manufacturing and trade upside down. I have been very critical about open borders.

Our nation became second to none without these two problems. Now we supposedly can’t get along without them.

We used to have a healthy view of globalism, and now we can’t get enough of it.

Very strange days...

[groanup]

A 400 point run-up on extremely negative financial news is as a poster said earlier - bull trap.

Au contraire. Jesse Livermore always said that a market that rallies on bad news is reacting to smart money or insider buying. It is the best indicator of a looming bull market that there is. Don't ignore it.

But the news wasn't really bad. In fact the indicators released today all came in better than expected.

[RightWhale]

Good. This sounds like a reasonable explanation. The stock market might be good to us right up until National Election Day in Nov. Then who knows.

[politicket]

There are signs that the credit markets are healing. It’s covered in the excerpt, you don’t even have to click the link.

There were no specific signs mentioned in the excerpt.

Lehman was mentioned. They are about to undergo an effort to raise reserve capital and thereby dilute their stock. Is that good news? I wouldn't think so.

How about UBS? They just wrote off another $19 bilion for the 1st quarter. They are also going to try to raise reserve capital and dilute their stock. Is that good news? I wouldn't think so.

How about some Wall Street Journal headlines for the day. Surely that must be where the good news exists:

Sales Slump at Auto Makers. Is that good news? I wouldn't call it that.

Senate's Housing Gridlock Eases. Is that good news? Some might think so - but upon reading the article you would quickly find out that the American taxpayer who pays their bills will be subsidizing those that don't. So, I would have to put that one in the bad news column as well.

I'm still waiting to hear what the good news was that created a 400 point rally in the Dow. Can you please point it out to me?

[Cobra64]

WHAT’S THIRD ON THE MSM AND DEMS TALKING POINTS FOR THE 2008 ELECTION?

WHAT? I CAN'T HEAR YOU. SPEAK UP!

[groanup]

How does the interest on our debt go to the Federal Reserve? The Fed actually pays that money, plus other funds BACK to the Treasury every year.

[Cobra64]

...but want people to realize that things are not good in the financial world right now.

I don't think that at all. However, I believe that the market is stabilizing, which I something that I welcome.

[politicket]

In fact the indicators released today all came in better than expected.

The indicators were all down, but not as down as some were expecting.

There were no indicators that gapped up to show a recovery under way.

I look at the rally today as people holding a lot of dangerous stock unloading it to those who don't gamble very well. We haven't seen the worst of this financal mess yet and people are acting like it's over.

[Cobra64]

There are signs that the credit markets are healing.

Bingo! Let the market deal with it.

[cinives]

Yep, the pump monkeys are dancing madly.

Don’t look at the trillions in derivatives and the 1T in HELOCs that are probably not collectible at this point. Not to mention the still-falling RE valuations and such.

The taxpayer will make everything good and we can go back to the party now.

[cinives]

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/04/we-no-longer-live-in-constitutional.html

You’ll like this guy.

[politicket]

Thanks, interesting read.

I was still up late last night when the UBS news broke. The Heng Seng index in Asia was still in its intra-day break. Once the break was over the index fell like a rock. The Dow futures were down about 60 points at the time, with the S&P down about 10.

All of a sudden, everything began turning North and went green. That's what I call game-playing.

[groanup]

We haven't seen the worst of this financal mess yet and people are acting like it's over.

Why do you say that?

UBS stock was up double digit percent today. A stock rallying like that on bad news can only mean one thing.

[groanup]

All of a sudden, everything began turning North and went green. That's what I call game-playing.

Or short covering, or rallying.

[cinives]

On Ticker Forum we call it stick-saves. You routinely see it about 2:15 in the PM.

I don’t know how people can be so short-sighted - if writing down billions and billions of dollars was good, then the DOW should already be at 16,000 or better.

[politicket]

UBS stock was up double digit percent today. A stock rallying like that on bad news can only mean one thing

UBS just wrote down $19 billion of bad debt, bringing their 6-month total to $37 billion. Their chairman resigned. They are going to dilute their stocks by issuing new stock to raise $15 billion in capital.

It would be interesting to see who the buyers of UBS were last night. I would think that the findings might surprise you.

In answer to your question about why UBS went up last night:

Click here

In part: "However, bankers and analysts cautioned that the rally could also reflect the large number of hedge funds and other investors who had bet that prices would go down and were retreating from short positions."

[Freedom_Is_Not_Free]

The massive volatility in the market is what I find worth noting. 350 pt up days followed by 400 pt down days. This is the most volatile market with the wildest and widest swings I can recall in recent history. I wasn’t paying as much attention during 2000-2001. Was it this bad?

[Freedom_Is_Not_Free]

Just for the record, this crisis is a different than previous market corrections. The FED is taking measures not invoked since 1929. Lets not be fooled into thinking that this liquidity crisis is like any other normal bear market in equities.

[TruthConquers]

“Who (were) the buyers of UBS last night?”

That is the question, is it not?

I’m with you, the credit mess is still percolating below the surface of all this make nice, moving along, nothing to see hear, talk.

[Freedom_Is_Not_Free]

I must have missed the signs that lenders are more willing to lend money now for residential RE, Commercial RE, LBOs, etc... than last month or the month before. Can you please spell this out for me?

[groanup]

It would be interesting to see who the buyers of UBS were last night. I would think that the findings might surprise you.

That's one thing we'll never know. Jesse Livermore would have claimed it to be insiders and he would have bet the farm on UBS at this point. Suffice it to say that the only thing that makes a stock, any stock, go up is buyers. And the only thing that makes a stock go down is sellers. Over the last 8 months we just may have exhausted all of the sellers. If there's no one left to sell..., well? Markets that don't go down, go up.

[DoughtyOne]

I’m going to have to point out that the lending institutions who floated those bad loans, should fend for themselves.

If a house goes belly up, the institution can take the home back and resell it. They’ll take loses, but who forced them to make those bad loans in the first place?

The government shouldn’t be stepping in here. So what if some lending institutions go belly up. There are others. Those other institutions would simply sell more product over the next few years.

When folks take it in the shorts in the market, does the fed come through and cover their losses?

This may be the first such actions since the depression, but I don’t think it was necessary.

Where were our fine Senators and Congressmen when these incredibly destructive loans were being floated?

I know some people whose heads should roll. For one thing, the private industry types who trotted out these loans should go to prison. And those that sit on the House and Senate banking committees should be sent home as well. My guess is that at least some of them were getting donations that led them to look the other way. Aw, that couldn’t happen could it.

[mo]

As usual..the Dems can only find opportunity in their fellow Americans’ misery.....

[Freedom_Is_Not_Free]

My only point was that this crisis is more severe and more potentially catastrophic than a normal down market or recession, as evidenced by the extreme measures taken by the FED, which have not been undertaken since the Great Depression. I think that is an indication of just how severe and unusual this liquidity crisis is, as opposed to a normal market correction of 10% or a normal recession or normal dip in housing. This time, it IS different. It’s worse.