Posted on 04/13/2008 8:20:52 AM PDT by ZacandPook
I find it very interesting that you not only feel I should believe as you believe, but you also feel I should do things the way you do things. And if I don't, then I'm automatically wrong.
If you are deciphering the letter, why on earth would I waste my time doing it, too?
If there was anything of great value in the email, why would FOX ignore it? They have an unblurred copy. Their article about it shows that the ONLY thing of value they could find in it was that someone mistakenly gave General Parker some bad information. Here's what the article says about the email:
But in an e-mail obtained by FOX News, scientists at Fort Detrick openly discussed how the anthrax powder they were asked to analyze after the attacks was nearly identical to that made by one of their colleagues.
"Then he said he had to look at a lot of samples that the FBI had prepared ... to duplicate the letter material," the e-mail reads. "Then the bombshell. He said that the best duplication of the material was the stuff made by [name redacted]. He said that it was almost exactly the same … his knees got shaky and he sputtered, 'But I told the General we didn't make spore powder!'"
So, some guy at Ft. Detrick made a mistake. Big deal. He saw a powder sample that was "nearly identical" to that made by one of his colleagues. And it was "it was almost exactly the same."
SO WHAT?
That does NOT prove anything. It CERTAINLY does not prove that this other person made the attack anthrax. All it proves is that on top of all the other mistakes being made back then, someone made one more.
You seem to feel I should believe as you believe, work as you work, and get excited when you get excited. Sorry, I don't see things that way.
Ed says
“I’d say it’s between 90 and 95 percent certainty that a child wrote the letters.
“and he says the evidence is that the writer learned how to write “R” sometime between writing the first letter and addressing the envelopes.”
Let me posit a different theory. In his February 2002 “profile” that the one accomplice was a drunk because he read a botched Brian Ross news account suggesting that the FBI suspected someone fellow who was mowing his lawn on 9/18 and got in an argument with his neighbor after drinking. See his profile using google archives (he changed it when I told him it was outrageous to fit his “profile” around the person he suspected).
He separately learned of a scientist in the field who went to the same university (but actually doesn’t know the mower). Ed saw a google item showing a listing for the PTA. (He first thought the scientist lived in NJ and then realized he was in NYC). So Ed developed his First Grader theory and became wedded to it. He passes it off as having been discerned from the “FACTS” when it is no more fact-based than his suggestion of the drinking.
I recently canvassed 30 First Graders at a birthday party. I put up Ed’s theory and supporting evidence on a powerpoint presentation. They are all pretty sure Ed did it. Ed, in contrast, has never even addressed Ken Dillon’s Jdey Theory.
The DOJ has posted a $5 million dollar theory for Jdey.
The FBI, in contrast, has said you never have told them anything useful (that they didn’t already know).
I’m impressed - you didn’t use your usual “early panicky days” highlighted in red. You just highlighted “nearly” and “almost” a few times, to try to downplay the significance of Detrick “accidently forgetting” to tell the General that, well actually, they did make a powder. But it was just a teensy, weensy amount of Ames spore powder - and it was just a teensy bit identical to the powder that was sent to Daschle and Leahy. Hey, no big deal.
2006 could be the “early panicky days” - or does that date really say June 2002? Or maybe even October 2001 if you look at it just right?
You realize, I assume, that you are proving once again that you cannot discuss FACTS. If the FACTS disagree with what you believe, you just ridicule them and joke and pretend they mean nothing.
You also realize, I assume, that by turning the discussion into an ad hominem attack on me, that you are proving in another way that you cannot discuss FACTS.
Meanwhile, the FACTS remain FACTS. And they continue to say what they say.
That's called an assumption. There is absolutely NO reason to believe the powder was made from the Ames strain. They are only talking about how the powder LOOKED. A powder made from the Vollum strain or some other strain would not LOOK any different than a powder made from the Ames strain.
And even if it WAS the Ames strain, there could have been many reasons for creating it. There are news reports that they were making powders from Ames at Battelle and had reasons for doing so. Therefore, IF the attack powder was made at one of those facilities (which is EXTREMELY unlikely), there's no way to know which one made it -- using only publicly available information.
Your assumptions and beliefs may make the Fox article important in your eyes, but to the rest of the world it is clearly a manufactured story of little real significance.
“That’s called an assumption.”
No - that’s an analysis of the FACTS. The email clearly says “Ames spore powder”. That’s what you learn when you ANALYZE the FACTS.
Jeeze, I would HOPE so! I'd hate to think that I'm leading the investigation and that the FBI has to depend upon me to solve the case.
The FBI knows what I know because the FBI and I are on the same page. A significant part of my analysis is trying to figure out what the FBI knows.
Ah, yes. ZacandPook's deciphering produced this:
just believe that I had heard xx had made Ames spore powder just
Someone believes that he heard that someone else had made Ames spore powder. I guess in your eyes that makes it a fact. And it MUST have been the attack anthrax "weaponized" with silica. Right?
The FACTS are the FACTS. The powder being discussed in the email is not Vollum, not a simulant - it is AMES SPORE POWDER.
I realize the Fox email story, the first real piece of news on the anthrax attacks in years, makes you extremely uncomfortable - but try to stick to the FACTS if you can.
Beecher’s paper has been discredited - it could now NEVER stand up in court as a peer reviewed paper (as an analyst in the C&E News article suggested as it’s purpose) - not after the editor of the journal has now publicly stated how uncomfortable he is with the unsupported conclusions. And after the same journal has now published a rebuttal to which Beecher has remained silent.
The FACTS are the FACTS - no matter how much they may crush your dearly held beliefs.
I'll be back again tomorrow.
Someone told me that there would be big news today. To me it looks like another routine day wasted trying to get people to discuss facts when they only want to discuss beliefs.
The FACTS are that the Detrick email discusses AMES SPORE POWDER.
The FACTS are that Beecher’s paper has been officially discredited by the Journal he published it in.
The FACTS are that AFIP announced silica was a key aerosol-enabling component of the Daschle powder.
The FACTS are that multiple people who examined the powder SAW an additive.
The FACTS are that the Whitehouse spokesperson officialy announced silica was found in the senate anthrax.
The FACTS are that the FBI announced they had failed to reproduce the powder after 2 years.
The FACTS are that your precious BW source, defector Ken Alibek, has been ousted from his position at George Mason University, after the Los Angles Times exposed him as a fraud.
The FACTS are that your other precious BW source, Matthew Meselson, was exposed as a fraud years ago.
Looks like I can waste that last 10 minutes, too.
I found the Fox story to be amusing. It didn't make me uncomfortable in any way. Your beliefs to the contrary don't change that.
Beecher’s paper has been discredited
Beecher's paper has been criticized for not including supporting documentation for statements he made. That does not make him wrong. It only means that people who have contrary beliefs won't accept anything until they see all the evidence that exists. And if it cannot be publicly released, to them that just proves a conspiracy.
TTFN
No, Beecher’s paper has been discredited. A paper get’s discredited when the editor states that it should not passed peer review. Sorry, but that’s the way it is. As I said, it would not last 2 seconds in court now.
It was a stupid stunt in the first place.
Ed,
The leading anthrax scientist Ken and former deputy Charles were both consultants to Battelle in 1999.
You have a webpage titled anthraxinvestigation that you extensively advertise (see hyperlinks above) in which you promote your speculative belief that the letters were written by First Grader. Yet, you have not even bothered to disclose to your readers that Al-Timimi’s lawyer has said in federal district court that the FBI has considered Al-Timimi an anthrax weapons suspect.
Is it because you know that William Patrick kept his biochemistry information on his bookshelf in a black binder in his living room? Are you are privately asking yourself: “Damn, if WP kept it in his living room, where did Ken keep it?” “On his Dell?”
Is it because you don’t know why Ali Al-Timimi had a high security clearance for his work for the Navy while at SRA International?
Do you not credit that Mohammed Abdel-Rahman was on AQ 3- member WMD committee and tasked with recruiting scientists? And that he spoke with Ali at IANA charity conferences?
Do you not credit that Ali was not much more than 15 feet from Ken and Charles as a spitwad flies?
To have credibility, you should address alternative arguments and address the underlying evidence. This FoxNews email needs to be corroborated or debunked. If it is authentic, and if the law enforcement source is credited, it is extremely dramatic.
You have done such a great job in demolishing a Hatfill Theory I am trying to encourage you to attempt to do a similar great job at demolishing a Jdey Theory. I find the “shoe bomb” discussion in Ken’s theory superfluous to the logic of his theory as to Amerithrax. His logic as to Amerithrax is powerful, however. At the very least, you have to correct your false claim on your webpage that the hijackers did not have accomplices. Jdey is known to have been part of the “planes operation” until he pulled back.
You shouldn’t leave dramatic factually incorrect statements central to your argument uncorrected on your webpage.
In contrast, the FBI has demanded to know who is helping me because I was telling them things they didn’t know — making connections they hadn’t noticed or known about. The demand was first made 5 or 6 years ago.
I told them that I was recruited at an Arlington, VA high school football game after word got out I had once beaten Steve Novick in chess.
The FBI only relented on their request I take a polygraph when I told them that their strategy of neutralizing the threat by all these various prosecutions was genius.
The day and exact minute Ali’s residence was searched, 100 federal agents fanned out in this town and simultaneously interviewed 150 people. It was two weeks after Mohammed Abdel-Rahman had been captured and harshly interrogated. It was called OPERATION IMMINENT HORIZON.
http://www.anthraxandalqaeda.com
Ed,
See how that capitalization works. OPERATION IMMINENT HORIZON warrants being capitalized. Your use of FACTS does not.
By the way, how does your discussion on your webpage square with the recent discussion of coatings and spore viability in
“Development of an Aerosol System for Uniformly Depositing Bacillus Anthracis Spore Particles on Surfaces.”
As I recall, several of the authors are from Dugway Proving Ground. It was in Aerosol Science and Technology, Volume 42, Issue 3 March 2008 , pages 159 - 172.
I get the sense you are quick to opine on issues that are beyond your expertise. I don’t get the sense you even read the aerosol science literature or for that matter ever go to a library.
In contrast, my brother-in-law just fixed my toilet by properly installing the flapper. My wife hadn’t read the instructions. (I thought they were talking about getting a clapper from the hardware store.)
But the key difference is I rely on the experts.
Well, I would definitely agree with you that the December 1998 PDB and the August 2001 PDB read very similarly. But note that the December 1998 PDB was included in the 911 Commission Report. On the subject of PDBs, there is a still-classified February 2001 PDB that discussed the threatened use of anthrax. Under any true crime theory, that PDB is highly material.
By way of background to the February 2001 PDB, on January 23, 2001, in Canada, Mr. Justice Nadon issued an order holding that the Court did not have jurisdiction to decide the constitutional and Charter issues raised by #2 in the Egyptian Islamic Jihad/Vanguards of Conquest, Mahmoud Mahjoub, and dismissed that part of the motion. A letter was received January 30, 2001 at the Citizenship and Immigration Office threatening to use anthrax. It was sent to Immigration Minister Elinor Caplan who had cosigned the detention certificate. Authorities suspected that the letter was sent by militant islamists in protest over the detention of Mahjoub, who ran Bin Laden’s farm in Sudan. Mahjoub had been sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison in 1999 by Egyptian authorities for his involvement in Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Now, he was being detained without charges under an order cosigned by Immigration Minister Caplan and threatened with deportation. The postmark has never been publicly identified. Separately, hoax letters were also sent to American businesses and a Walmart in Saanich, British Columbia. Mahjoub had been in regular contact with a man named Marzouk, who had trained the 1998 embassy bombers and was captured in Baku, Azerbaijan in August 1998.
Suspecting Mahjoub of being a shura member of the Vanguards of Conquest and Egyptian Islamic Jihad, the Canadian intelligence officials alleged Mahjoub had significant contacts with persons associated with international Islamic terrorism including Osama Bin Laden, Ahmad Khadr, Essam Marzouk, Vanguards founder Ahmed Agiza, and Osama Bin Laden’s principal procurement agent for weapons of mass destruction Mubarak Al Duri, who also for a time was from British of Columbia. Al Duri, while living in Tucson, Arizona, was acquainted with Wadi al Hage who is in U.S. custody for the bombing of the U.S. embassies in Africa. Al Duri while residing in British Columbia may have been associated with Marzouk, who trained the 1998 embassy bombers.
When the letter was received in January 2001, the letter was sent by Department of National Defence jet to the Canadian Science Center for Human and Animal Health in Winnipeg for examination. Authorities also sent the filters from the Jean Edmonds building’s ventilation system. Authorities said they were treating it as a possible terrorist act against the department and noted that it “was the first time a government department has been targeted in this way.” The Ottawa alert came after one of the employees working in the Minister’s office opened a plain white envelope at 11:15 a.m. The employee discovered powder and a piece of paper in the envelope. Police refused to reveal from where it had been mailed. One source said the letter was unsigned and “mostly gibberish.” (Indeed, the Fall 2001 letters might be described as mostly gibberish, and certainly the “JLo letter” — talking about Jennifer Lopez’ planned wedding — could be.) An internal government memo distributed to staff said “an initial analysis of the envelope revealed some traces of bacteria.”
Bill Patrick, who often worked with George Mason University students in northern Virginia, had written a report in 1999 for a consultant SAIC at the request of Dr. Steve Hatfill. As one bioterrorism expert commented about the report: “Anytime you pick something up like this, and it seems to layout the whole story for you months or years before the fact, your immediate response is to step back and say ‘whoa, something may be going on here. “Our attacker may very well have used this report as something of a — if not a template, then certainly as a rule of thumb.”
After the January 2001 anthrax threat, Canadian defense research team undertook to assess the risk. The report titled “Risk Assessment of Anthrax Threat Letters” issued September 2001. In contrast to the 1998 study by William Patrick that had been requested by Dr. Hatfill’s employer SAIC, the Canadian study found considerable exposure to those in the room resulted when such a letter was opened. Bacillus globigii spores (in dry powder form) were donated by the US Department of Defense (Dugway Proving Ground, Utah). Stock concentration powder was -1 x 10 11 cfu/gm. The anthrax sent to the Senators had a smaller particle size tending toward a uniform 1 micron, subject to clumping that easily broke apart. Bacillus globigii (BG) spores are routinely used as a simulant for Bacillus anthracis (anthrax) spores. “The letter was prepared by putting BG spores in the center of a sheet of paper, folding it over into thirds, placing the folded sheet into the envelope and sealing using the adhesive present on the envelope. The envelope was then shaken to mimic the handling and tumbling that would occur during its passage through the postal system.” The aerosol, produced by opening the BG spore containing envelope, was not confined to the area of the desk but spread throughout the chamber. Values were almost as high at the opposite end of the chamber, shortly after opening the envelopes. 99% of the particles collected were in the 2.5 to 10 mm size range. The report explained: “In addition, the aerosol would quickly spread throughout the room so that other workers, depending on their exact locations and the directional air flow within the office, would likely inhale lethal doses. Envelopes with the open corners not specifically sealed could also pose a threat to individuals in the mail handling system.”
More than 80% of the B anthracis particles collected on stationary monitors were within an alveolar respirable size range of 0.95 to 3.5 µm. Thus, the simulant performed very well. Those who continue to argue that the Daschle product was so advanced beyond what the US could do are mistaken. Indeed, the more notable question is why such a good product was prepared in response to a threat letter sent to an immigration minister. The reason perhaps is that authorities knew that it was Al Qaeda and Egyptian Islamic Jihad that sent the letter. The CIA and CSIS apparently feared that the Vanguards of Conquest would use the good stuff.
The CIA knew EIJ intended to use anthrax — from the proclamations of Jaballah’s friend, the captured military commander Mabruk and Jaballah’s brother-in-law’s former law partner al-Zayat. Authorities knew Al Qaeda was getting technical assistance from scientists — and that many of the senior Egyptian leaders had advanced or technical degrees. The specifications provided by Dugway perhaps involved treated fumed silica and a spraydryer (with a last critical step reserved to be done at Dugway) likely were based on what Al Qaeda might send with a little help from their friends.
Canadian officials explained they e-mailed the study to the CDC soon after reports of the discovery of anthrax at the American Media Inc. headquarters in Florida. The e-mail, however, was never opened, reports the lead CDC anthrax investigator, who regrets that he never read the email. “It is certainly relevant data, but I don’t think it would have altered the decisions that we made.” At one point, about 2,000 CDC employees were working on the anthrax matter. This Canadian report was perhaps the single most important scientific data point for the CDC to take into account. It certainly was one of the most important reports for the FBI to take into account. Bail was denied by decision on October 5, 2001. Then highly potent anthrax was sent the next day just as had been promised. But Ayman had returned to the target of his greatest interest — rather than a Canadian immigration minister, he and Shehata and their colleagues targeted the minister who oversaw the Department of Justice and appropriations to Egypt and Israel, and who gave his name (”the Leahy Law”) to the law that permits continuing appropriations to Egypt in the face of allegations of torture. Zawahiri never makes a threat he doesn’t intend to try to keep.
The Canadian experiments in 2001 showed that if anthrax spores were finely powdered, a letter could release thousands of lethal doses of the bacteria within minutes of being opened. Furthermore, large amounts of material leaked out of sealed envelopes even before they were opened. By then, more than two dozen federal government employees knew of the Canadian studies, which showed that a real anthrax threat letter was a far more dangerous weapon than anyone had believed. Within days, a dozen more people were informed of the now highly relevant experimental findings. One FBI squad was focused on people who may have known of the study — such as William Patrick’s friend, Dr. Steve Hatfill. Another squad would be focused on the usual suspects and their friends. For the next seven years, the investigation would be shrouded in great secrecy.
The question now is: who else is on Jaballah’s or Mahjoub’s Friends and Family Calling Plan? The authorities apparently already know the answer and have just been bashful. They certainly seem to know who was on Ali Al-Timimi’s Friends and Family Calling Plan and Postal employee Sattar, the blind sheik’s liaison with the jihadists.
P.S. While I’ve tried to catch it in editing, I often mistakenly have written that Islambouli planned to visit. When instead Islambouli/KSM plan was to send someone (from Saudi Arabia). I’m fascinated by the prospect that Al-Marri was the guy. He had been in Doha with KSM and Islambouli. Then he and his family moved to Saudi Arabia. Then he came here as a biochem operative. Susan Schmidt of the WP even wrote a tantalizing article that made an IANA connection and talked about how he had his computer mailed “to Washington.” I cannot get her to clarify for me as to whether she meant Washington or Washington, D.C. and find it ambiguous (although I’m sure the Washington Post copyeditor has a settled understanding/rule that governs that eliminates the ambiguity).
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