[familyop]

"...but the real 800-lb gorilla in the rice mkt is the Asian psyche. Asian nations who are running short on rice won't just buy for actual need. No, no, they'll buy in advance of actual need and then they'll buy -- and hugely -- in advance of perceived possible need."

That's true in regards to the frenzied buyers. In at least one city with several military bases and posts, most of the people buying arriving rice stocks out in stores like Sam's Club are restaurant owners and Asians. Now that they're not allowed to buy whole skids of the stuff off of the delivery semis, their extended families do it several bags at a time. Sane customers still aren't seeing the premium Indian stuff for supper. The few paranoid mansion rednecks with diesel-guzzling trucks come in second here on that. ;-)

[SAJ]

Mkts never change -- only the players do.

The behaviour of mkt players in any perceived shortage situation is and has been very nearly identical throughout history. I devoted a chapter in my book a few years ago to this phenomemon.