Posted on 05/13/2008 3:02:37 PM PDT by Red Steel
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in Oregon shows Barack Obama leading John McCain 52% to 38%. That’s a significant improvement for Obama compared to a month ago when he led the presumptive Republican nominee by six percentage points. In three consecutive Oregon polls, McCain has never received more than 40% support when matched against Obama. In the current poll, McCain attracts just 68% support from Republican voters in the state.
Obama leads McCain among voters under 50. With older voters in Oregon, the two candidates are essentially even. Nationally, McCain and Obama remain fairly evenly matched among all voters in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
The poll also found that the race would be somewhat closer if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination. In that match-up, Clinton attracts 46% of the vote while McCain earns 40%. The Oregon Senate race also has the potential to be troubling for the GOP.
Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Obama leads McCain 49% to 39% in Oregon. With a three-poll average, McCain leads Clinton by just a single point, 44% to 43%.
Obama remains the most popular of the three candidates and is viewed favorably by 61% of Oregon voters. McCain earns favorable reviews from 52% while Clinton is viewed positively by 47%. Those perceptions are relatively unchanged over the past month.
Oregon has cast its Electoral College votes for the Democrats in five consecutive Presidential Elections. Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given a 85.0 % chance of doing so again. However, during those five elections, no Democrat has earned more than 52% support in the state. Three of the five Democratic victories were earned with 47% of the vote or less. In Election 2004, John Kerry defeated George W. Bush in Oregon 51% to 47%. At the time this poll was released, Oregon was ranked as “Likely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Oregon voters oppose proposals for a federal gas tax holiday. Just 35% support the concept. Nationally, voters are evenly divided on the question.
Just 33% believe the federal government needs more revenue to fund important national programs. Fifty-one percent (51%) disagree.
Forty-nine percent (49%) are worried that the next President will raise taxes so much that it harms the economy. Thirty-seven percent (37%) are worried the next President will cut taxes so much that it harms important government programs.
Sixty-one percent (61%) oppose increasing the capital gains tax and 49% believe such a tax hike would harm the economy.
Just 29% of Oregon voters say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. That’s down three points from a month ago. Twice as many, 57%, say he is doing a poor job.
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In other words, 49% are complete idiots who have no concept of wealth creation.
If Obama is this strong when the Wright fiasco is still a short memory, imagine how strong he will be in November. It will be a blow-out.
It does not take too much scientific polling to see that Obama will win Oregon.
There is no logical reason at all for McCain to be going there and making ridiculous speeches on global warming. That will not change anything.
Oops, please disregard. I misread it.
LOL, how embarrassing.
About 30% will resist the “messiah”, thank God.
The one real "plus" to the upcoming slaugher/debacle: with the twin disaters of it and 2006 ultimately and conclusively discrediting the imbecilic approach of the "Hey, Let's Transform the Entire Party Into Democrat Lite!" fifth columnists... we'll finally get control of our party back. ;)
Oregon is DEFINITELY a “blue” state this election.
Let’s see, if this nation DOES fragment into two or more smaller nations, could we makee sure that Oregon is OUTSIDE the core federation?
The People’s Republic of “Cascadia” sounds good.
In the current poll, McCain attracts just 68% support from Republican voters in the state.
It is scary we have certain substantial states such as NY and California, that would opt for a USA we would not recognize. Heck, New Yorkers basically oppose the war on terror after being attacked and dying by the thousands on their own territory.
No surprise here. Pot’s just about legal, mushrooms grow on firehouse lawns, and the old hippies who’ve come to Oregon to roost are singing “Give Peace A Chance” and painting Obama’s face on their vintage VW buses.
Isn’t Oregon lib country? The only news here is the fact fake messiah is more left than mclame.
52% is exactly what John traitor Kerry won in 2004.
Thank you...needs to be said over and over and over again........
I predict that Obama will carry Kalifornia too. No surprises here.
Both the Republican Party at every level and U.S. conservatism at every level are truly going to have a very difficult time getting around the endless waves of illegal immigrants who will eventually legally be given the right to vote in all future U.S. elections! The illegal immigrant voting block will truly vote in the super-majority for very leftist politicians at every level, every time for the long-term.
I know there is nothing I am looking forward to more than spending my next 40 years standing in long lines for stale bread, reading propaganda posters about how wonderful life is in the Soviet Socialist States of America.
Obama will be the next president! God Help US All!
I think Kerry got only about 51% in 2004, and Gore took OR by an even smaller margin. So it was competitive in the last 2 elections but I guess they are too far gone now. OR joins Seattle, San Francisco, Vermont and parts of NYC, not to mention other areas, that essentially are no longer even part of America. How sad. With many Oregon residents supposedly having a libertarian streak I had hoped the GOP could make some inroads here but I guess not. I will be surprised if Sen Smith wins again.
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