CALIFORNIA MAJORITY BACKS GAY MARRIAGE - Field Poll director calls results a milestone

San Francisco Chronicle ^ | 5/28/8 | John Wildermuth

[newzjunkey]

I believe “marriage” belongs to the churches and government’s civil licensing should not discriminate on the basis of the couple’s genders, but I most certainly do not believe this poll. I expect “one man and one woman” to have an easy win in November.

[newzjunkey]

"Brothers and Sisters" is an infomercial for Leftist ideology. The show is unwatchable rubbish.

I've never seen "Grey's Anatomy."

[InsensitiveConservative]

Exactly. My brother-in-law agreed to particiapte in a telephone survey. The first question was ‘do you agree President Bush is doing a good job?’ He answered with a yes ... the guy conducting the poll said ‘Oh nobody is home here’ and slammed down the phone.

Never trust a telephon survey.

[Publius]

The author claims that the modern evangelical movement is faltering, losing its political power, and that some megachurches are losing membership. She claims in particular that young people are leaving the church in droves.

It's bit more complicated than that. I would recommend the writings of John Judis and Ruy Texeira, both from their books and their articles in The New Republic. They have documented that religious sentiment has its peaks and troughs, and we are in a downslope now.

Pollsters such as Gallup, Harris, Field and Christian polling firms such as Barna have all documented religious sentiment. They all agree that there were peaks in 1958 and 1996, with a trough in 1977. The 38 year period between peaks indicates a generational character, which makes sense. There being no data gathering of this type before World War II, there is no way of knowing what pre-war peaks annd troughs look like, but one could extrapolate a peak in 1920 and a trough in 1939. Looking at the popular culture of those times, that would also make sense.

This creates a sine wave as follows:
Peak in 1920 (guess)
Trough in 1939 (guess)
Peak in 1958 (documented)
Trough in 1977 (documented)
Peak in 1996 (documented)
Trough in 2015 (guess)

(If I were gifted in the use of HTML and graphical software, I'd draw you a curve.)

But Judis and Texeira have shown that the peak of 1996 was lower than the peak of 1958. The downslope we are currently in now makes it appear that the trough of 2015 will be substantially lower than the trough of 1977. If you follow price trends of things such as stocks and commodities, a sine wave with lower peaks and lower troughs is the sign of a bear market. Since the end of World War II, religion has been in a bear market in this country.

But Judis and Texeira have pointed out something more important by drawing a 50% line on the horizontal axis. By 2015 when we hit the next trough, a majority of Americans will be religious Unbelievers. (Judis and Texeira believe this is so important that they capitalize the U in Unbeliever, thus to show that it is as much a "religion" as any other.) Because of this falling off in religious sentiment, Judis and Texeira believe that Progressives and Democrats have a strong future because the Republicans' "marriage" with the Devoutly Religious is no longer an advantage, especially by 2015. This may explain recent actions by McCain and the RNC toward the Devoutly Religious within the party. The RNC can read polls too.

[megatherium]

That’s extremely interesting. Thank you so much! I’ll look for Judis and Texeira.

[Uncle Hal]

The LA Times poll a couple days ago had it 54% to 35% against gay marriage, something is fishy here. I think somebody fudged some numbers to get the results they wanted. I do not think the voters will approve gay marriage in CA.

[fwdude]

Reading all the posts on this thread, I can understand the rationale of each perspective, pass or not pass. Polls can be biased and misleading, but many times, they are not. I see this as being a very close vote. If the Supreme Court does not stay the implementation of the decision, same-sex couples will come out in droves to get "married" with the press in tow, under the direction of the slickest marketing experts. As we've already seen, newly-hitched couples will gush before cameras and then their voices will break and then burst into tears at FINALLY being able to call themselves "married." The best face will be put on these couples' lives: an idyllic story-book house with a big friendly dog in the yard, children hanging onto the "parents", the most conservative of haircuts and clothes, all the right words for "playing house." A guilt trip will be laid on those wishing to undo this lovely scene.

If the stay is granted, I think the lack of inertia on the radical side will produce a much better chance of the amendment passing. Plus, radical intimidation groups such as KnowThyNeigbor.org will further piss people off by publishing their names as supporters of the initiative.

[DoughtyOne]

Thanks for the nice response. I appreciate it.

[DoughtyOne]

Are we allowing Sharia law courts yet? I know Britain is, but I didn’t think we had sunk that low yet.

I appreciate your comments.

[DoughtyOne]

Frankly, though different, they’re both aimed at women. And neither have moral one to offer. It’s not just that they are mindnumbingly insipid, pandering to certain demographics, but they throw in this make believe world stuff that drives any thinking person somewhat batty. And they throw in bushels full of leftist agenda to boot. They’re selling a lifestyle, well a number of lifestyles, one’s that there really shouldn’t be a market for unfortunately.

I can turn my brain off for science fiction and accept the truly impossible antics that support the story line, still undertstanding what some of the plots play into political matters. And at the end, I still come away thinking this was science fiction.

I cannot turn my brain off to watch the immoral tramp vulgarities that are passed off as real life. No, not every hospital orderly is banging the nurse in the linen closet. No every nurse isn’t passed around to the doctors on the staff in something akin to musical chairs. No, patients don’t sit there in agony, while the staff hashes out who is going to be sleeping with whom at the end of the shift. And yet, this isn’t recognized as science fiction. No, there is in truth no science, but it is as much fiction as science fiction, and yet... “Hey Marge, did you see Dr. Shlong last night. Isn’t he dreamy?” Sheesh...

I watched about one of the Brothers and Sisters shows, and that was enough. It’s bad enought that I sit through Desparate Housewives about two out of four weeks, as a kindof outreach program to my wife.

LOL

[DoughtyOne]

I agree Uncle Hal. It isn’t going to happen.

[DoughtyOne]

I pretty much agree with that. I do think it will fail either way, but your view could be closer to the truth. We’ll see.