The Mystery Metrics Sending The Americans Home

Strategy Page ^ | 5/30/08

[Dawnsblood]

The U.S. is beginning its withdrawal from Iraq. U.S. troops strength is expected to decline from 170,000 to 140,000 by the end of the Summer. The reduction is made possible by the growing number of Iraqi army and police units that can do the job. U.S. military advisors have seen this coming for years, as they tracked dozens of different metrics (statistics on various aspects of Iraqi performance). The Iraqi armed forces and police had to be completely rebuilt. That's because the Saddam era army and police existed mainly to keep Saddam in power. Most of the leadership in that force was Sunni Arab, and the new Shia and Kurd dominated government did not trust these guys to serve a democratic Iraq.

These metrics are kept secret, as the enemy would love to have some insight into the effectiveness of the security forces. But in the last year, many Iraqi army and police units have revealed their capabilities through their performance. The greater number of capable soldiers and cops was a big reason why the Sunni Arabs turned on the Sunni Arab terror groups (especially al Qaeda) they had long supported. A year ago, it finally became obvious to most Sunni Arabs that the Shia majority had finally done the impossible (according to Sunni Arab beliefs) and created a large number of effective soldiers and police. That force, backed by the Americans, could not be defeated.

The attitude towards the U.S. troops had also changed. For five years, the American troops consistently demonstrated their superior combat ability, while also observing strict ROE (Rules of Engagement) that protected civilians far better than Arab terrorists or soldiers ever did. Many Sunni Arabs had come to see the Americans as protectors (from Shia and Kurd death squads, out for revenge).

When the security forces went after the Shia militias earlier this year, the militiamen were dismayed. It was widely known that the Iraqi army and police were defeating al Qaeda, and a few hold-out Sunni Arab militias. Now these forces were moving into Shia Mahdi Army strongholds, and the Mahdi gunmen quickly discovered they could not hold out against these Iraqi troops who dressed like American troops, and fought a lot like them as well. Worse, the Shia militias could not exploit the U.S. ROE (and hide out in mosques or use civilians for cover) when confronted by Iraqi forces. The "new" Iraqi troops were also systematic and relentless like the Americans. Mahdi Army strongholds in Baghdad and Basra are being taken apart, week by week. By the end of the Summer, the Mahdi Army will be reduced to weak remnants.

Iraq still has the corruption and tribal loyalties, but at least the police are now able to go after the many criminal gangs that have made life miserable, for more people, than the terrorism of the last five years. That leaves the corrupt politicians to be taken down. That depends on trained and disciplined voters, which are less numerous than the newly reformed security forces.

[Man50D]

Bring the troops home now! Oh wait, that’s happening.

[I see my hands]

[freema]

: )

[Thomas W.]

“The ‘new’ Iraqi troops were also systematic and relentless like the Americans.”

Man, does that give you goose bumps, or what?

“Systematic and relentless.”

God bless our systematic and relentless troops and their brave Iraqi allies.

I’ve read that the Iraqis now want to buy Abrams tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles.

I say let them. Iraq isn’t going to invade anybody anytime soon, if ever again.

Except as allies in Operation Iranian Freedom, maybe.

[Lancey Howard]

Ping to some interesting information re: Iraq.

[xzins]

Outstanding article, Lancey. The Iraqi population is very quickly now being brought to believe that this government is their government. The ability of this government to provide military, police, civil, and economic oversight is becoming a given in the minds of the Iraqis.

When they wake up any given morning accepting the government as “the government” without even thinking about it, then the battle is over. It sounds like it is just about over except for some holdout areas in Mosul and in some Shia communities.

[brityank]

Dang, Lancey -- you're either up awful early or you don't sleep!       ;^)

Worse, the Shia militias could not exploit the U.S. ROE (and hide out in mosques or use civilians for cover) when confronted by Iraqi forces.

About time! Biggest mistake we made was allowing them to call anyplace a 'sanctuary'. That gave them a place to sequester arms and equipment, and cover to regroup -- all with devastating results to our troops theatre-wide. But that's just what we did -- sent in our troops as cops taking down a bunch of bank-robbers, all treated as individual actions in different neighbourhoods, villages, and towns instead of a complex insurgency.

[jazusamo]

Great piece, thanks for the ping, Lancey. It’s nice to read something about Iraq that’s concise and logical without the enemedia spin, Mookie’s days are numbered if he’s still breathing.

[Marine_Uncle]

What you say is obviously true. But we have to keep in mind the game plan was for the Iraqi people to see the US and Coalition forces as positive protectors of their rights and religious believes while roaming about to kill the ali babba that killed so many Iraq citizens. It has been a real juggling act between raw force and trying to appear as trusted occupiers.
Many criticize Bremmer on upward, but when we take pains to carefully view the whole strategic plan, one may find the decisions taken over the long run have produced a Iraqi citizentry that most often trusts the US military and now see their own forces being fair minded to a large degree.
We want a Iraq that joins the western democracies and become honest brokers/allies in the GWOT as well as a future key producer of oil/gas.
We must balance the equations carefully. The change of status in Iraq has taken place not because we hammered hundreds of towns and cities to dust, but because we painfully built up a new Iraqi military and police and forced their elected central government leadership to finally take the reins and bring their country under control. Most Iraqi have seen how fair minded the western world's military forces can be. It is hard to fathom some Sunni or Shia father with wife and children who has been protected from a bunch of blood thirsty goons, by US forces now think unkindly of us.
Let us keep in mind. The US and Coalition forces invaded Iraq not to kill Iraqi off. But to remove a brutal dictator that was evil toward his people, sponsored terrorism outright, had plans to resurrect a nuclear program, and showed the world he had plans of causing great unrest in the ME. His invasion of Kuwait obviously being one good example of what he intended to do over the long run.

[brityank]

The change of status in Iraq has taken place not because we hammered hundreds of towns and cities to dust, but because we painfully built up a new Iraqi military and police and forced their elected central government leadership to finally take the reins and bring their country under control. Most Iraqi have seen how fair minded the western world's military forces can be. It is hard to fathom some Sunni or Shia father with wife and children who has been protected from a bunch of blood thirsty goons, by US forces now think unkindly of us.

I don't think anyone would have wanted to raze them to the ground, but to fail to document and pursue -- and we have the combat-camera footages to verify -- those insurgents that did hide and assault from mosques gave them more power than we gained in respect, IMHO. We finally did announce and hit them, but had to get approvals from well upstream while the troops in contact took severe injuries and unwarranted deaths.

Part of that harkens back to my own service, where the Admiral had to get approval from Bobby [very]Strange Macnamara and his Whiz-Kid minions to open fire on the beach in support of the Marines our task-force had landed. He was denied, and I always wondered if we might not have had as many bodybags come back had we done that.

Even though the great majority of the Iraqi's now approve and support the actions we've taken, I'm under no illusion that they will change their ways in the future. The socialist-style mindset, as against the individual cooperative attitude, is too entrenched in their history and their religion.

[Marine_Uncle]

Your closing paragraph is shared by this reader. But for the rest, it can be difficult to compare the bean counter's ill advice back then, to Rummy and his predecessor in this current engagement.
I for one find difficulties from equating to closely the two war's objectives. Despite potential huge oil fields claimed to be present in Vietnam, we do know the potentials in the ME.
Oil has a direct bearing on how we have operated in Iraq. We seek a ally in Iraq to keep stability throughout that region, as well as the continued potential of extracting their oil and gas.
We only have to look at the nature of the resistance that started to boil in 2004 through loosely 2006 to see the battlefield has constantly changed.
If we where leveling all their mosques would it have prolong the time frame of the Sunni Awakening for instance. I don't have the answer, perhaps no one really has one definitive all encompassing answer in this area of thought.
But it sure looks like more Iraqi are now embracing the idea the Americans and Coalition Forces have not committed evil in their country for the most part, quite the opposite.
But surely at the same time I can step in line with your views when I think of our fighting men and what they have had to do.
My nephew while serving in the Marines on two tours, first in the triangle of death upward and including Fallujah, second in al Anbar province, surely comes to mind, as well as my first cousin's son who again served two tours in the pit with Army, first in Balad, second moving about from Baghdad to Kuwait.
They both survived and returned whole. But so many of our fine men and some women did not. So I have similar sentiments and would have even if my family members did not debark to Iraq.