[kjo]

The truth is that Obama got the nomination by some lucky votes in a few caucus states, Clinton is the much stronger fall candidate.

The Democrats are simply terrified of taking the nomination from an African-American. They fear riots in the streets and at their convention.

[beezdotcom]

Interesting article, but it doesn’t (and really can’t) take into account the ‘rage’ factor if the nomination is ‘stolen’ from Obama and given to Hillary. That is very hard to measure, but it isn’t hard to envision the myriad of ways it could alter the vote.

[penelopesire]

The dems rather consult astrologists than astrophysicists...LOL

[wideminded]

the median result of all the polls conducted in the weeks prior to an election is an especially effective predictor of which candidate will win that election

But we are not within weeks of the fall election.

Later in the article Tyson admits that this method doesn't predict November.

[COUNTrecount]

Political predictions made today.

[<1/1,000,000th%]

So if the election is limited to only 19 of the 57 states, Hillary could beat McCain?

[Round 9]

Of all the states to miss, they missed Hawaii???

[Redcloak]

when Professor Gott and Dr. Colley applied the median method in 2004, they correctly predicted the winner in 49 states, missing only Hawaii.

If I were them, I'd be seriously concerned by this. A senile chihuahua could have predicted that Kerry would easily win Hawaii. It's very odd that their model messed up there.