Electoral College: McCain And Obama Battling For Supremacy In Eight States (Part II)

U S Electoral College and its role in electing a president were discussed in the last article. The contests between Senator John McCain and Senator Barrack Obama in the East, North-east and Middle American states are reviewed here. The Eastern coastal belt has favored the Democrats traditionally. Middle America is strongly Republican. There are eight key states many consider consequential to the final outcome in 2008: namely Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio, South Carolina, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The battles being waged in these states will keep everyone engrossed. The match-up is fascinating and 107 delegates are at stake. In 2004 John Kerry won the coastal states but George Bush held his own in Middle America.

This is the first time in history that two Senators vie for the presidency. We are seeing a classic match-up. The selection of a vice presidential candidate would also bring in an added dimension to the battle.

Electoral Votes for each state are mentioned in parenthesis.

Connecticut (7): Connecticut is liberal and Democratic, and McCain would have a hard time winning this state except if he were to pick Sen. Joe Lieberman as his running mate. It is leaning Democratic.

Delaware (3): Al Gore’s and John Kerry’s wins here in 2000 and 2004 were not dominant, and McCain will campaign hard here. Ruth Ann Minner (D) barely won re-election in 2004. This state might be a battleground arena, but early on it looks like an Obama victory. It is leaning Democratic.

District of Columbia (3): This could be a blowout of unprecedented proportions. Libertarian nominee Bob Barr could challenge McCain for second place with about 4% each. It is solidly Democratic.

Illinois (21): Obama’s home state will go Democratic. Obama has a solid base here.

Indiana (11): Indiana has been Republican for decades. Bush won by 16 and 21 points in his two runs here. Obama has made sizeable gains here. Illinois attracted lot of attention when Clinton and Obama had record a record turnout. Obama’s first advantage is Lake County, which includes the cities of Gary and East Chicago as well as some liberal suburbs. This is Obama’s home turf and the second-most populous county in the state. Indianapolis has a high black population while Bloomington’s liberal university population could generate enthusiasm. This is leaning Democratic.

Iowa (7): Obama’s strong showing in early head-to-head polls ought to give Republicans reason to worry about the Heartland. Democrats picked up two House seats here in 2006. Senator Tom Harkin (D), a hardcore liberal, also has no serious challenger this year. Obama may get a win here.

Maine (4): Increasingly a Democratic stronghold. Senior white people tend to be McCain voters, but leisure-class New Englanders is Obama people. Obama is the strong favorite here, but this one could drift in either direction. Maine is one of two states in the country that are not winner-take-all in the Electoral College. The statewide winner gets two electoral votes, and the winner of each congressional district is awarded one elector each. It is leaning Democratic.

Maryland (10): Maryland is strongly Democratic with Obama atop the ticket than it was in 2000 and 2004. The mixture of wealthy whites and urban blacks makes this Obama country.

Massachusetts (12): The Bay State is beyond the reach of any Republican. Obama might not fare as well in South Boston as a whiter candidate would, but he won’t lose the most Democratic state in the nation. This is solidly Democratic.

Michigan (17): Democrats have won all of the top-tier statewide races this decade (three Senate contests, two governor races, and both Presidential races), and the GOP brand is damaged thanks, in part, to George W. Bush and the poor economy. But still, McCain has an outside chance here. Both candidates are weak in Michigan. McCain doesn’t naturally connect with hunters or union voters, but these are the very Democrats who have been rejecting Obama throughout the primaries. Obama’s base of college towns and black cities will give him a boost over previous Democrats, but his consistent weakness among union workers may be a factor to reckon with. It is leaning Democratic.

New Hampshire (4): New Hampshire was one of three states to switch sides from 2000 to 2004, and it could switch back to the GOP column this year. In 2004, Kerry won the state, in part as the local boy, but also due to the Democratic surge in the Granite State. That Democratic surge doesn’t look likely to slow down in 2008. McCain, however, has a sort of second home here having won the state in the 2000 and 2008 primaries This is one of the most swingable states, but early on is leaning Democratic.

New Jersey (15): Bush surged here in 2004, but not enough to carry the state. Obama should have no trouble carrying the Garden State. This is solidly Democratic.

New York (31): Obama will dominate here. Hillary and Bill Clinton would campaign for Obama. Governor and both Senators are Democratic. It is solidly Democratic.

North Carolina (15): Obama’s strong performance in the Southern primaries doesn’t portend a competitive general election. The wine-and-cheese crowd of Charlotte, the black electorate, and the liberal college vote may be vocal, but they’re the minority in North Carolina. It is leaning Republican.

Ohio (20): Ohio will most likely play the role of decider this fall as it did in 2004. Both candidates have more weaknesses than strengths here. McCain is no Wal-Mart family-man conservative as Bush was, but Obama has to hope that religious voters and gun owners get over the “bitterness” that caused him to lose Ohio badly in March. There are pockets of wealthy suburbanites, black voters, and hardcore liberals that will help him. A new Democratic senator and governor, together with likely Democratic pickups in the U.S. House here are all promising signs for the Democratic Party. Too close to call.

Oklahoma (7): This is not the part of the Heartland that’s in play. It is solidly Republican.

Pennsylvania (21): It tilted heavily towards the Democrats in 2004. Obama’s dismal primary performance here, especially among white voters, makes this a swing state. The question for November is can Obama hold onto the Arlen Specter-Ed Rendell vote in the Philadelphia suburbs. Some believe that Governor Rendell might be Obama’s running mate. Too close to call.

Rhode Island (4):Rhode Island is even more liberal than Massachusetts in many ways. It is solidly Democratic.

South Carolina (8): The Democratic primary electorate is majority black, but the November electorate is not. Obama has to win rural whites to win this state. He may be campaigning hard here. It is leaning Republican. Too close to call.

Virginia (13):There is much talk about Virginia as a Democratic pickup for 2008. Democrats hold the governorship and after November will probably hold both Senate seats. Popular former Gov. Mark Warner (D) will likely win the Senate race that he can stump for Obama. Democrats have made big advances in Northern Virginia as those suburbs have gained in wealth. Add in a strong black vote near Richmond and Virginia Beach, and you see the reasons for Democratic optimism. Bush won this state by 10 points in 2004. It is leaning Republican. Too close to call.

Vermont (3): Some Republicans have called this the heart of liberal hippiedom. Obama is likely to win this. It is solidly Democratic.

West Virginia (5): Once a battleground state, this year West Virginia falls off the charts because Obama fared badly during the primary. It is leaning Republican.

Wisconsin (10): This is a battleground state where Obama looks stronger than most Democrats. He shores up the Ralph Nadir vote and motivates the liberal base. The black pockets in

Milwaukee: will help. Obama could be the winner here. It is leaning Democratic.

Wyoming (3): McCain will win here easily. This is V P Dick Cheney’s state. It is solidly Republican.

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