Posted on 06/10/2008 4:47:21 PM PDT by The_Republican
The American economy might surprise us by the year-end. Many economists and businessmen believe that although the current slowdown could turn into a recession, a financial collapse is now highly unlikely. Bruce Kasman, the chief economist at JPMorgan, is an optimist. He believes that even though the economy has been hit by some big problems, it also has strengths that will encourage recovery. (American exports, which now account for most of the country's economic growth, are booming.) But Kasman is a short-term optimist; he has a much gloomier view of the longer term.
For the past 15 years, the U.S. economy has outperformed all other rich countries, averaging real GDP growth of 3.2 percent and monthly job gains of 150,000. This remarkable economic run, which took place as Japan slumped and Europe staggered, has been critical to the country's economic vitality and to the preeminent role Washington has played in the world. Kasman argues—with careful research to back him up—that this period of high productivity and GDP growth has ended. "U.S. growth rates for the next decade or more are going to look more like those in Europe and Japan," he says. Current projections suggest that the long-term growth rate will fall to 2.5 percent at best. If so, that will have huge implications for jobs, incomes and America's general well-being.
Why is this happening? The biggest reason is that there are now fewer workers in the American economy. The baby boomers are beginning to retire, the entry of women into the work force—a phenomenon that boomed in the 1990s—has slowed down and, since 9/11, immigrants, particularly skilled ones, are coming to America at lower rates. In addition, the productivity gains from technology have dwindled; business has gotten the bulk of the benefits of the information revolution.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...
Let me guess without opening the rest of the article. We elect Obama and suddenly in late January 2009 , the economy will be fixed and Iraq will be doing well. And we’ll all get puppys and candy and be happy. All because of “Hope.”
From the article:
Unless entitlements are trimmed substantially, America is headed for fiscal bankruptcy. Immigration policy needs reform, most urgently so that the United States can once again attract the world’s most talented people. Spending on research, technology and infrastructure needs a big boost. (U.S. spending on infrastructure as a percentage of GDP is the lowest in the industrialized world today.) Energy policy needs to be overhauled. Trade policy needs to be revitalized. Tax and regulatory codes need to be simplified in order to keep America a competitive place to do business.
A pretty sane article from Fareed.
This is just a summary of one of the exteremly long articles he wrote that I posted. I think it was from his new book.
Post American World......or soemthing like that.
Title sounds ominous, but details told a different story.
Basically, America is fine and the BIGGEST danger right now is that art of compromise is lost. People are putting politics ahead of Country.
He cited how now UK has become the #1 Financial Center in the world. Mainly because we turned away both the Capital and talented people by adopting pseudo-xenophobic policies.
I agree with trimming entitlements and reforming immigration to restrict it to the talented. However, he doesn’t mention deporting those who contribute little except future high school dropouts.
great Idea lets start by giving me back all the money I put into social security. I can fend for myself.
For Fareed, this is pretty sane because he normally turns his nose up at America. He does however, slip in that we need to RAISE TAXES, as if we could tax ourselved into prosperity.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.