Posted on 06/17/2008 8:30:49 PM PDT by DeaconBenjamin
European Union leaders who meet for summit talks in Brussels on Thursday are bracing themselves for more delays in the ratification of the bloc’s Lisbon treaty after its rejection last week by Irish voters.
Legal and political complications in the Czech Republic and Poland make it unlikely that the two central European countries will ratify the treaty in time for a scheduled EU summit in October, politicians and diplomats forecast on Tuesday.
Together with the Irish vote, the Czech and Polish problems make it a near-certainty that the Lisbon reforms to the EU’s institutions and voting procedures will not come into effect on January 1 as once planned – and possibly not before the European parliamentary elections in June 2009.
“It’s not impossible to do it by next June but it’s touch and go,” one senior EU diplomat said.
Eighteen of the EU’s 27 national parliaments have approved the treaty. Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, the German and French leaders, said immediately after the Irish referendum that ratification should go ahead in all eight countries still to give their verdicts.
In this way, the crisis would be confined to Ireland. EU officials then hope to address the problem by offering Dublin additional treaty protocols, which would guarantee the Irish right to control policy in sensitive areas, possibly including taxation, military affairs and family law.
However, the risk of “contagion” spreading from post-referendum Ireland appears to be growing.
Some diplomats detect the biggest threat in the Czech Republic, whose president, Václav Klaus, has declared Lisbon dead and whose constitutional court is expected to deliver a verdict on the treaty some time between October and December.
Diplomats also expect difficulties in Poland, where parliament has approved the treaty but President Lech Kaczynski has held back from signing it, as required by the Polish constitution.
“It is not a very popular treaty in Poland,” said a European government official in close touch with the Polish scene.
“It is not seen as a success for Poland. I can imagine the president delaying and delaying.”
At the Brussels summit, Brian Cowen, the Irish premier, will give fellow leaders an explanation of the referendum result over dinner on Thursday.
But politicians and diplomats said it was too early for the EU to commit itself to specific action to overcome the crisis.
Some EU officials would like Ireland to hold a second referendum by next March to reverse the rejection of Lisbon.
But diplomats warned that it was premature to assume the Irish would conclude that another vote was the best way forward.
The French government has drawn up an action-packed agenda for its six-month presidency of the EU that starts at the beginning of next month and insists it will not change its plans, which are based on the existing treaties rather than the Lisbon text.
Europe “did not stop” with the Irish ‘no’, Jean-Pierre Jouyet, Europe minister, told the French senate on Tuesday.
Excellent
I hope the EU dissolves.
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