U.S. Says 400-Billion Barrel Bakken Oil Field a 'Myth'

CNSNews ^ | June 18, 2008 | Keriann Hopkins CNSNews.com Correspondent

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

(CNSNews.com) - Reports circulating on the Internet tell of an oil field spanning parts of western North Dakota and eastern Montana where 400 billion barrels of oil supposedly are just waiting to be tapped. However, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) tells Cybercast News Service that those huge estimates are "a myth."

A USGS report issued in April estimates that there are between 3 billion to 4.3 billion barrels of oil in what is referred to as "the Bakken Formation" -- well below the 400 billion barrels discussed on the Web, but up from the previous estimate of 151 million barrels made in 1995.

Richard Pollastro, Bakken Formation task leader at the USGS, said the myth stems from a 1999 draft report -- never published -- by a now-deceased USGS employee, Leigh Price. Price estimated that the Bakken Formation holds up to 400 billion barrels of oil. To put that in perspective, Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, has about 260 billion barrels of known oil reserves.

Price, however, died in 2000, before his study could be peer-reviewed and published, and the Bakken Formation became the fool's gold of the oil industry.

"Unfortunately, in many instances, we are still trying to explain and defend our assessment versus the inappropriate and irresponsible posting of Dr. Price's 'draft report,'" Pollastro told Cybercast News Service.

According to Jonathon Kolak, a USGS scientist and information specialist, the discrepancy between Price's 1999 estimates and the agency's 2008 findings arises from the fact that Price was trying to assess the "oil generation potential" of the oil found in the pores of rocks and shale in the Bakken field, as well as the total content of how much oil might be pooling up - or "oil in place."

"What Dr. Price was looking at was 'oil generation potential,' and then, from that, trying to make an estimate of 'oil in place,'" said Kolak. "Those terms are very distinct from 'undiscovered technically recoverable resources.'"

The latest study, which was commissioned by U.S. Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.), is an estimate of how much "technically recoverable" oil and gas is available -- i.e, how much oil can actually be recovered using today's technology.

Kolak also explained that the 25-fold increase between the 1995 estimates and the 2008 assessment is due to two factors: an improved understanding of the geology and advances in drilling technology.

"Our understanding of the geology improved significantly because of the time difference between the studies," he said. "There has been some drilling since then, there has been a lot more information that has come out, other people have conducted studies, and also USGS researchers have conducted studies."

Moreover, drillers are utilizing directional drilling in the Bakken fields, a way of drilling at an angle to tap previously unrecoverable reservoirs.

"If you've been out to western North Dakota, you don't need a USGS report to know that there's oil there because you can see from all the drilling activity that there's a lot of energy development going on in western North Dakota," Dorgan spokesman Justin Kitch told Cybercast News Service .

Kitch admits that comparing Price's 1999 study to the April USGS study is like comparing "apples and oranges."

"But certainly it's nice to have an up-to-date assessment of the amount of oil that's technically recoverable in the Bakken," he said.

In 2006, Marathon Oil bought 200,000 acres in the Bakken to drill over 300 wells. This past May, after the report was released, Texas-based XTO Energy bought 352,000 net acres in the Bakken Shale for $1.9 billion.

The federal government, meanwhile, said only a small proportion of the oil available with today's technology is economically viable for recovery.

"If you're drilling the Bakken, it's pretty easy to drill somewhere in there and at least see some oil, but the question is: Is there enough there to get out and actually be economically recoverable?" Kolak asked.

At the end of 2007, about 105 million barrels of oil had been produced from the Bakken Formation.

The USGS, meanwhile, considers any release or dissemination of Price's unpublished report to be "inappropriate and irresponsible."

[2CAVTrooper]

“Are these USGS employees in the union and who does their union back in this election?”

More than likely.

And in the name of job security they’ll support osama-bama or anything else with a “D” next to their name.

[Smokin' Joe]

The USGS report was one of estimated technically recoverable and undiscovered reserves in the Bakken US Bakken Assessment Project

You can download the report and read it rather than filter it through a reporter.

Note, that is technically recoverable undiscovered reserves, and is only a small fraction of the oil in place in the formation.

According to the article at the USGS Newsroom the assessment shows a 25 fold increase over the amount of technically recoverable oil estimated in the 1995 estimate of 151 million barrels of oil.

That is a significant increase.

Development began in the Elm Coulee Field (Eastern Montana) in 2000, and now over half the oil produced from the Bakken has come from that field.

When the estimates of how much of the oil present in the formation is technically recoverable range from 3% of the oil present to 10%, with some estimates as high as 18% over in the Elm Coulee Field in Montana, you can multiply the recoverable oil by a factor ranging from 6 to 33, and get an estimate of oil in place.

Which is the 'other number' which seems to be causing this writer to get their knickers in a knot.

Estimates vary, but a better discussion of the process and the questions raised is to be found at the NDGS website which explains the development of the controversy in relatively simple terms.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Thanks.

[BooBoo1000]

I thought the debate was about getting away from our dependence on imported crude. I don’t care where it is produced, if we bring on line a huge amount of crude, the members of OPEC will just sell their over production to China and India, both of whom are just waiting to buy more crude. Our bringing on more crude, will not reduce the demand, China is trying to build up a strategic oil reserve of 1,000,000 barrels, so far they have not been able to get that much surplus crude, India is trying to buy more crude any place it becomes available. It is a population thing, in that these two countries have booming population increase and these people want the better things of life, ie autos. 20 years ago China had 10,000 private autos in their country now they have over 1,000,000 personal autos and they all run on gas. So no matter how much we produce domestically there will always be a shortage until we find an alternative energy source.

[2CAVTrooper]

Ethanol may be good for the big corporate farms, but does little or nothing for the little guy.

Ethanol also takes more energy to produce, and is not as efficient as regular gasoline is due to its lower stoichiometric fuel ratio.

Ethanol also causes problems for cars that are not designed to use ethanol in that it damages the fuel system. Older cars would need a completely new fuel system that does not have bare magnesium, aluminum, or rubber parts in the system. Also for vehicles with fuel-tank mounted electric fuel pumps, additional differences to prevent arcing, as well as flame arrestors positioned in the tank’s fill pipe, are also needed since ethanol is more electrically conductive than gasoline. Fuel injection control systems must have a wider range of pulse widths to inject approximately 40% more fuel.

Now take E85 for example, when made from corn E85 reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 15-20% as compared to gasoline BUT this is negated because it burns 25% to 30% less efficiently than traditional gasoline in most vehicles.

It’s just like the push for electric cars. Yeah the cars are zero emission, but now the powerplant is increasing it’s emissions to produce more power to recharge the cars.

It also reduces carbon monoxide and benzine emissions BUT it releases emissions of acetaldehyde which is a toxic pollutant.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the car manufacturers who are pushing the most for the ethanol fuel additives, so when people face mounting repair bills for their older cars (fuel system damage), they’ll come crawling to the local stealership for a new one.

In other words, all this BS with electric cars, and ethanol, global warming, and “going green” is just a scam to screw the people over.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

just posted:

Dems to Bush: Drop dead on oil drilling

[Popman]

Oil man president presiding over free for all of deregulated opaque speculation by the big banks and hedge funds.

On the money

Housing was first market exploited by the Hedge funds, oil is currently being exploited, Water is probably next

[crusty old prospector]

Also, offshore California. There are some nice-sized fields just off of the coast but the Malibu-types don’t want their views disturbed.

[crusty old prospector]

A vertical well costs about $100 a foot to drill.

[crusty old prospector]

A vertical well costs about $100 a foot to drill.

[rb22982]

What if it’s not a bubble? You do realize that investors must sell their contract or take delivery (which they don’t want to do)? You also realize that despite record high prices, inventory levels are way down and well below the historic norm? Probably no more than $20/barrel is speculation currently which means we’d still have $4/gal gas.

[Marine_Uncle]

All these things should have been put in place during at worst time wise, George Herbert Bush's time in office.
The dikes have burst, now it is to late.
Many of us do not seem to understand that at best if all where to go with out hitches, we are many years away from having the ability to extract all the estimated oil/gas reserves mentioned in the major areas discussed. And it takes hundreds of billions of dollars and a number of years to build up sufficient refinery capacities to properly convert these mineral resources into all the things, lubricants, fuel oils, jet fuels, gasoline, petrochemical stocks etc., to turn the tide.
As for nuclear and clean coal liquidification processes, same goes. It just royally pisses me off.
As for those that would say we have those other natural resources such as wind, solar, geothermal. Well fine. But they in past years where nowhere near close to even a partial solution on a national scale. Fine for geographically blessed areas, but not nation wide.
IMHO the big push for corn based ethanol to replace gasoline is a prime example of how stupid for the most part our leadership really are.
There where sufficient studies that made it clear that this path would not be sufficient to offset our growing need for gasoline from a transportation standpoint.
Only in the past year or so, do we now get people telling the morons on the hill etc., that the cheap fix was a big mistake.
About the only thing I see positive is the fact that just perhaps the environmentalist may soon become less effective at pushing their agendas. We see a few Senators and HR Reps making public statements during their open sessions of energy that the blame can be laid on these groups. But of course the blame must be placed on all the dopes in these two houses that allowed themselves to be conned over the years.

[2CAVTrooper]

Actually, as far as inventory levels goes, they are higher because global production outpaces consumption.

And according to numerous articles I’ve read, upwards of $60 in the price is from speculation.

[rb22982]

Actually, as far as inventory levels goes, they are higher because global production outpaces consumption.

Source? My source is the DOE.

And according to numerous articles I’ve read, upwards of $60 in the price is from speculation.

Really? Find me one.

[BIGLOOK]

I've heard lots of estimates on the Bakken area, the low of 300 billion bbl, this of 400 billion bbl (put out by USGS, a gov't bureaucracy) and Big Oil estimates of 800 billion, possibly as much as 3 trillion bbl. The oil companies may be including finds in S. Dakota and Canada in their estimates.

Time: ANWR could provide 20 years of supply alone. The Bakken in Montana and North Dakota could yield supply for 200 years.

This time line fits. It correlates nicely with the discovery of di-Lithium crystals providing the ultimate alternative energy source.

[dalereed]

When you consider the source “The latest study, which was commissioned by U.S. Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.)”, I think the entire article is basicly bogus and meant to generate public condemnation of oil drilling.

[kcm.org]

First, if you are a vet, thank you for your service!!!

Your points are on the mark and therefore you know how to research.

BUT it releases emissions of acetaldehyde which is a toxic pollutant.

Forgotten about that, thanks again.

Coincidences don't happen by accident as now the midwest has been flooded along with corn, soy, wheat and so on. Maybe this will end the ethanol scam.

Nonetheless ethanol is helping American farmers as am surrounded by acres of corn as far as I can see as I type.

[kcm.org]

Presumptive questions are a great tool, aren't they?

[2CAVTrooper]

Find you one?

http://www.google.com/

Look up oil speculation.

[PapaBear3625]

Because it doesn't need to be 400 billion barrels to be worth drilling. 3.6 billion is still more than worthwhile and has been the cause of significantly increased drilling and leases for several years before this report was even released.

More to the point, let's say that there's 4B there that's easily extractable, and 200B there that needs new technology to efficiently extract. The 4B justifies laying down the pipelines and infrastructure.

Once the infrastructure is there and the easy oil has been gotten, that justifies the incremental expense to develop the technology to go after the slightly-more-difficult nearby fields, and so on.