There is no such thing as gravity, the earth sucks.
I wonder if both chutes failed or if there was simply not enough time for the reserve to open.
My brother was in 82nd Airborne in WW-II. One of their marching songs, to the tune of The Battle Hymn of the Republic, went like this ...
“They picked him up still in his chute and poured him from his boots; Oh he ain’t gonna jump no more.”
I agree, very small odds. Not having enough time to get a good reserve canopy is not entirely uncommon in these circumstances, particularly if time is spent messing with the main.
It only has to happen once.
Calculating probabilities of two independent events using the probability of occurrence for each event is straight-forward multiplication.
The problem I see in a case like this is in determining that the two events are truly INDEPENDENT. If the same person has packed the main chute and the backup, then it may be that the probabilities are not those of independent events.