I doubt that speculators are responsible for much of the run-up of oil prices. Why didn't they run them up sooner? Besides, there are too many other explanations: increased demand from China and India, the declining dollar and Middle East tensions.
The Middle East tensions are speculator related unless he's trying to say that Middle East "events" are actually reducing the supply of oil. Last I saw Iraq was pumping a fair amount and more then when the prices were lower.
“There were two main reasons for the market’s sceptical response. Saudi Arabia has only offered to boost its output by 200,000 barrels a day (b/d), about 0.2% of the world’s current consumption of 87m b/d. Worse, its leaders had told various foreign grandees about their plans in the preceding weeks, so oil traders had already digested the news and were looking for more.
And even as Saudi Arabia’s output rises, Nigeria’s is falling. Insurgents in the country’s oil-rich delta region have attacked a pipeline belonging to Chevron and an offshore oil platform owned by Royal Dutch Shell in recent days, forcing both firms to cut production. Some 300,000 b/d of output has been lost, outweighing Saudi Arabia’s gesture.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2036098/posts