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Montana: Obama Leads McCain By Five (Rasmussen Poll)
Rasmussen Reports ^ | 7/3/08 | Rasmussen

Posted on 07/03/2008 6:05:08 PM PDT by NYC Republican

Barack Obama is leading John McCain by five percentage points in Montana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama attracting 48% of the vote while McCain earns 43%.

In April, the numbers were reversed with McCain leading 48% to 43%. That was before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and defeated Hillary Clinton by fifteen points in Montana. Fifty percent (50%) of Montana Democrats want Clinton named as Obama’s running mate. Just 29% of all Montana voters would like to see Clinton as the Vice Presidential nominee.

Against McCain, Obama leads among voters under 50, including a twenty-seven point lead among voters under 30. McCain leads among those over 50. Obama is supported by 89% of Montana Democrats while McCain gets the vote from 85% of Republicans.

Twenty-five percent (25%) of Montana voters say McCain is too old to be President while 42% say Obama is too inexperienced.

It would be truly stunning if Obama could turn Montana into a competitive state this November. George W. Bush won Montana’s 3 Electoral College Votes by twenty percentage points in 2004 and by twenty-five points four years earlier. Even Bob Dole managed to win Montana, albeit by a narrow 44% to 41% margin (Ross Perot picked up 14% of the vote).

The last Democrat to win Montana was Bill Clinton in 1992. He did so with 38% of the vote. The first President Bush got 35% of the Montana vote while Ross Perot picked up 26%.

(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Montana
KEYWORDS: 2008polls; electionpresident; mccain; mt2008; obama

1 posted on 07/03/2008 6:05:08 PM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: NYC Republican

If we lose Montana, we’re looking at a 40-state blowout loss... Maybe more


2 posted on 07/03/2008 6:05:42 PM PDT by NYC Republican (John McCain- Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory...Doesn't have the stomach or heart to fight.)
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To: NYC Republican; Norman Bates

Obama is not going to win Montana.


3 posted on 07/03/2008 6:07:12 PM PDT by Perdogg
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To: NYC Republican

Sure would be nice if the GOP would have nominated a better candidate.


4 posted on 07/03/2008 6:07:30 PM PDT by jayef
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To: NYC Republican

This, from the quintessential gun rights state.

I am convinced that the older democrats are completely divorced from reality these days. They seriously believe that any hardships the nation experiences now are the fault of Republicans, in spite of all the evidence to the contrary. I’m very familiar with one, and anytime something bad happens, it’s “this is Bush’s fault.” Literally.


5 posted on 07/03/2008 6:11:30 PM PDT by fwdude (If marriage can mean anything, then marriage means nothing.)
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To: jayef

Yhis jackass, McCain, goes on record today as saying H is trustworthy... You’ve gotta wonder... is he throwing the election? Seriously?


6 posted on 07/03/2008 6:12:15 PM PDT by NYC Republican (John McCain- Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory...Doesn't have the stomach or heart to fight.)
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To: NYC Republican

I remember when Fritz and Tits were supposed to be WAY ahead of Reagan, too.


7 posted on 07/03/2008 6:12:24 PM PDT by Slump Tester (What if I'm pregnant Teddy? Errr-ahh -Calm down Mary Jo, we'll cross that bridge when we come to it)
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To: NYC Republican

I must point out the fact the Democrat always leads in July.

I make no claims about Montana specifically, but, grain of salt and all that.....

And I am the most tepid of kind-of-maybe not quite there yet sort of McCain supporter, so I am not entirely sure I even care.


8 posted on 07/03/2008 6:13:06 PM PDT by A Balrog of Morgoth (QMC(SW) USN........ CG21 DD988 FFG34 PC6 ARS53)
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To: fwdude

This has the makings of a Reagan-style blowout, for H, and JM does nothing to fight back... Disgraceful


9 posted on 07/03/2008 6:14:01 PM PDT by NYC Republican (John McCain- Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory...Doesn't have the stomach or heart to fight.)
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To: NYC Republican

yawn


10 posted on 07/03/2008 6:14:41 PM PDT by Snurple
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To: Slump Tester

Different time.... Would be supremely naive to not realize that


11 posted on 07/03/2008 6:15:13 PM PDT by NYC Republican (John McCain- Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory...Doesn't have the stomach or heart to fight.)
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To: Snurple

If it was a blue state, it would be... but it’s a state Bush carried by over 20 both times


12 posted on 07/03/2008 6:16:18 PM PDT by NYC Republican (John McCain- Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory...Doesn't have the stomach or heart to fight.)
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To: NYC Republican

I’ll bet you a thousand bucks right now that McCain wins Montana. And if you’re not interested the bet is open to Rasmussen.


13 posted on 07/03/2008 6:16:38 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Obama (Marxist) Manchuria)
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To: jwalsh07

He may very well wind up winning, but tracking 25 points behind Bush, at this stage, is really troubling


14 posted on 07/03/2008 6:18:49 PM PDT by NYC Republican (John McCain- Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory...Doesn't have the stomach or heart to fight.)
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To: NYC Republican

13* Is free trade good or bad for the United States economy?

40% Good

29% Bad

19% Neither

12% Not sure

I guarantee you that 100% of the 60% that don’t think free trade is a good thing shop at WalMart.


15 posted on 07/03/2008 6:22:43 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Obama (Marxist) Manchuria)
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To: NYC Republican
This is also from that article:

Fifty percent (50%) of Montana voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than it is to win the War.

I simply do not believe that to be true.

I think that throws the whole poll results out the window.

16 posted on 07/03/2008 6:25:13 PM PDT by eddie willers
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To: fwdude

Montana? Suspect the methodology. Polling isn’t so much a measurement but a “crowd control” manipulation. It works, that’s why billions are spent on this kind of thing. What do you Suppose that all those nebulous feel-good alphabet agencies like the “Centers For Public Policy and Social Research” are doing at all those universities anyway?


17 posted on 07/03/2008 6:25:18 PM PDT by Freedom4US
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To: eddie willers

I subscribed to my states conservation magazine recently.

It’s not your grandfathers’ Field & Stream, boys and girls.

They did provide a web link to their “poll results”, but on the end page they had a blurb where they claimed that the #1 issue that a huge majority of our states hunters and fisherman worried about was “Global Warming”. What this type of propaganda depends on is the “herd instinct”, apparently. It derives its’ usefulness on people who cannot think critically or, objectively. The aim is to marginalize what may in fact be majority opinion and present it as extreme and in the minority, and inflate the radical, BS point of view as reasonable and in reality the majority view. Rinse, lather repeat.


18 posted on 07/03/2008 6:29:57 PM PDT by Freedom4US
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To: Freedom4US

If this poll is correct, then it’s not only McCain in trouble. America loses big time if Obama wins in MT.

This poll just doesn’t sound right though because it suggests if Obama is winning GOP leaning states then he is headed for perhaps a 45 state blow out. If he is doing that well in MT and Indiana, then he should have huge leads in OH, PA, MI, and even FL. But there the race is close or he is behind. This is just very odd.


19 posted on 07/03/2008 6:37:54 PM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: NYC Republican
there is a glow around Obama since he has cinched the nomination. As it gets later in the election people will think harder and deeper about things and reconnect with their cultural and ideological inclinations and his being the new flavor will be less and less important. But, then again it is a serious mistake if Republicans and Conservatives don't figure out that their back is to the wall and they had better do something instead of denying the obvious (as so many on this site are doing) or just being country clubbers serving themselves Tea on the deck of the titanic while watching it go down and doing nothing to save themselves.
20 posted on 07/03/2008 6:38:26 PM PDT by bilhosty
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To: TNCMAXQ

Did you even read what I said?


21 posted on 07/03/2008 6:40:11 PM PDT by Freedom4US
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To: bilhosty
You want to do something for your country to defeat Obama?

McCain is still in halo mode.

22 posted on 07/03/2008 6:40:38 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Obama (Marxist) Manchuria)
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To: bilhosty
Let's try that again Walsh.

You want to do something for your country to defeat Obama?

Make a donation to the NRA or some other heavy hitting 527 organization that isn't afraid to tell the truth about Obama.

McCain is still in halo mode.

23 posted on 07/03/2008 6:41:47 PM PDT by jwalsh07 (Obama (Marxist) Manchuria)
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To: Freedom4US

“Did you even read what I said?”

Yes and I hope that explains poll results like this. But you think Rasmussen would cook the numbers like that? They don’t seem to have much of an agenda usually and are highly regarded by many FR members. I would dismiss this as inaccurate but Obama has shown remarkable strength (in various polls) in many states where Dems are usually written off.

Even if the polls are not right I fear with McCain coming out behind in so many of them that this will depress the GOP base even further, and cause fundraising to drop. People will think he has no chance.


24 posted on 07/03/2008 6:46:31 PM PDT by TNCMAXQ
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To: NYC Republican
Hmmmm.

So, polls are showing McCain up seven in Missouri, up double digits in Florida,, and within striking distance in Michigan, but he trails Montana by five?

Methinks Scotty's phones are having some technical difficulties in Big Sky Country.

25 posted on 07/03/2008 6:48:48 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: jwalsh07

Try this on for size...

I’ve been struggling to think of the words that best describe the way McCain comes across so far in this campaign...

It just came to me...

He’s like a person who is tiptoeing around the house because he’s afraid of bumping into something and waking up someone who’s sleeping...

Or something like that...

McCain is tiptoeing around...

I’ve never seen someone do that in their run for the WH...

And I’ve seen lots and lots of candidates and campaigns...

Cough, cough, cough...

(My age is not the issue here.)


26 posted on 07/03/2008 6:51:03 PM PDT by txrangerette (Just say "no" to the Obama Cult.)
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To: NYC Republican
Hey, your getting carried away again with your poll obsessions . I recall the LAT poll you were freaking out over too. MT has become a weird place full of Ex Calif lefties retires so its shifting left but not this left. I travel to MT for work so how does anyone poll the place . Everyone has a cell phone due to its size and home phones are now rare. I think Scott R got a bad batch of real poor data here . A state does not swing this far another way in one month. I also think Scott is trying to get on the lib TV spots that pay well so his polling is shifting to the left. You don't get ask on CNN or NBC if the Repub is ahead folks but if you have a unusual poll like this one then all the Obama media drones want you to appear.
27 posted on 07/03/2008 6:53:47 PM PDT by ncalburt
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To: jwalsh07

PS.

I’m not accepting this particular poll, in saying that.

My comment is based on my long search to come up with descriptive words for McCain in this campaign...that is, ever since he clinched the Republican nomination.

It just came to me so I posted it on this thread which is of current interest...


28 posted on 07/03/2008 6:55:15 PM PDT by txrangerette (Just say "no" to the Obama Cult.)
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To: TNCMAXQ
Your right . I think the Obama media is trying to promote that story line. Drudge ignores any poll with McCain ahead and he is the Obama media . Drudge ignored the MI or FL polls by Scott R but features the Obama latest PR story line that Obama is strong in the west. Its the basic “ saying something long enough until you make it the reality”.
Classic Herr Goebbels
29 posted on 07/03/2008 6:58:18 PM PDT by ncalburt
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To: NYC Republican
“If we lose Montana, we’re looking at a 40-state blowout loss... Maybe more”

a good friend in Montana tells me that liberal Californians are invading Montana in large numbers.

30 posted on 07/03/2008 7:12:58 PM PDT by elpadre (nation)
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To: NYC Republican

More BS polls from the left...


31 posted on 07/03/2008 7:20:02 PM PDT by Wpin
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To: NYC Republican

Awww darn...I liked Montana.

Is it a sheep thing?


32 posted on 07/03/2008 7:20:43 PM PDT by Gator113 (Drill here, drill now...... or die.)
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To: NYC Republican

i find that hard to believe.


33 posted on 07/03/2008 7:25:41 PM PDT by ken21 ( people die + you never hear from them again.)
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To: elpadre
a good friend in Montana tells me that liberal Californians are invading Montana in large numbers.

I hear about this Roe effect of supposedly leftie women aborting their babies but from everything I read it seems its the Blue staters that are leaving their states and spreading across the country, a la NH, VT, CO, OR, WA, etc and now MT. Is there a state that has become more Red due to internal migration?

34 posted on 07/03/2008 7:38:22 PM PDT by C19fan
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To: Slump Tester
Fritz and Tits

LOL!!!!

Back during the prez campaign of 1984 the great Jules Pfeiffer did a cartoon with a character in white tie and tails tap dancing and singin Puttin' on the Fritz.

- Do you long for good old days
- When Jimmy kept us in a haze
- Just pass the grits; puttin' on the Fritz.

He did more of the song but it will take me a while to remember the other words.

35 posted on 07/03/2008 7:47:08 PM PDT by jimfree (Freep and Ye shall find.)
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To: NYC Republican

Not a chance Obama wins here when his gun record is exposed. Obama is in his glow in this libertarian state. Once they find out he’s not one of them he’ll slide.


36 posted on 07/03/2008 8:00:01 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: Perdogg

No he isn’t. This is a libertarian state and I suppose I can see with the spin why they think he’s one of them. However the NRA will be going after Obama on guns - they are earmarking $15-40 million - he won’t carry (pun intended).


37 posted on 07/03/2008 8:02:13 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: C19fan

All I know is what he said.


38 posted on 07/03/2008 8:12:16 PM PDT by elpadre (nation)
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To: Norman Bates

My patience is wearing thin while waiting for McCain to show more fighting spirit in his campaign. He needs to take Obama on head to head on every political issue AND character. Too much wimpiness going on.


39 posted on 07/03/2008 8:50:39 PM PDT by varina davis (Life is not a dress rehearsal)
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To: comebacknewt

Montana was one of the last primary states for the Dims and there were lots of Obama ads on TV as well as some Clinton ads. He’s been here three or four times as well.

He has continued to put ads on TV. I see about one a day on local television.

Most polishysters don’t even know Montana exists.

Anyway...there have been a lot of ads. People here in Montana are just tired of the crap that comes from the Dims and the Stupidublicans. Change is a powerful word.

McCain hasn’t don’t anything in this state from what I can see. Nothing at all. I don’t expect much from him at all as far as campaigning goes. I just don’t expect much from Republicans at all regarding a campaign in Montana.

I am kind of resigned to President Obama but then I was kind of resigned to Hillary getting the Dim nod.


40 posted on 07/03/2008 10:02:29 PM PDT by montomike (If you didn't find this funny or amusing...have a worldwide riot.)
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To: bilhosty
Photobucket
“People get the government they deserve.” Joseph deMaistre.

And when people become THIS freaking STUPID and inattentive to their freedoms, THIS is the candidate they deserve.

1 minute satirical Obama video here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tR6b-kWncI4

Hurry before some diversity loving (RIGHT!) Obamaniac at YouTube pulls it.


41 posted on 07/03/2008 10:03:21 PM PDT by Dick Bachert
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To: varina davis
Everybody needs to calm down. It's a long road that doesn't have a turn. When we get into the stretch, our guy will be there. This OBAMA is a four-flusher and flip-flopper who wouldn't cross the street for a free egg sandwich (couldn't make up his mind).

We're going to be OK, the greatest generation hasn't left yet, and they still have work to do. You'll see.

42 posted on 07/03/2008 10:10:30 PM PDT by tenthirteen
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To: NYC Republican

America is so screwed.


43 posted on 07/04/2008 9:36:56 AM PDT by omega4179
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To: NYC Republican

“If we lose Montana, we’re looking at a 40-state blowout loss... Maybe more”

I said it when he won the nomination, I stand by it.

A loss of Mondalian proportions. The Repubs, in all their “wisdom” will take the drubbing and learn the wrong lesson and tack even further leftward, losing election after election. Eventually they will have driven all of us traitorous conservatives from the party. They will not die over night, they don’t have the ba!!s to call it like it is and go quietly into the dark night, they will have to be starved to death, slowly. Only then can us traitorous conservatives create an actual conservative party as the mere Republicans join the Whigs on the ash heap where they quite frankly belong.


44 posted on 07/04/2008 10:19:08 AM PDT by Grunthor (May vote against Obama with the right incentive.)
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To: jayef

“Sure would be nice if the GOP would have nominated a better candidate.”

Or

Sure would be nice if the GOP would have nominated a candidate.


45 posted on 07/04/2008 10:19:53 AM PDT by Grunthor (May vote against Obama with the right incentive.)
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To: NYC Republican

“He may very well wind up winning, but tracking 25 points behind Bush, at this stage, is really troubling”

Bush wasn’t despised by conservatives. At least not back then.


46 posted on 07/04/2008 10:21:52 AM PDT by Grunthor (May vote against Obama with the right incentive.)
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To: Grunthor

That’s a good chunk of it...


47 posted on 07/04/2008 10:32:22 AM PDT by NYC Republican (John McCain- Snatching Defeat from the Jaws of Victory...Doesn't have the stomach or heart to fight.)
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