Posted on 07/09/2008 1:54:30 PM PDT by antiRepublicrat
Will we run out of some of the basic elements fundamental to modern technology? This is a question that has recently lit up the blogosphere. In particular, the elements Indium and Gallium are frequently referred to as "threatened." The herd latched on to an eloquent post on Asimov's Science Fiction, which was itself a rehashing of a New Scientist piece, which took its cue in part from an article in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (which, oddly enough, does not discuss either Indium or Gallium).
Regardless of the convoluted history, is there anything to really worry about here? Comments on blogs range from the insanely optimistic, "the invisible hand/technology will solve everything" perspective to things along the lines of "you idiots, the world is obviously doomed." Ultimately, there is a shred of truth to all of these, but let's look at a few key facts.
One of the arguments trotted out in most posts focuses on the fact that the price of Indium has risen from around $95 in 2002 to over $1000 in 2006. What these posts fail to point out is that it was around $180 in 2000, so $95 appears to have been carefully chosen as a starting point. The end point is pretty suspicious as well, given that Indium's price was around $665 in May. Meanwhile, everyone fails to point out that the price of Gallium has remained flat in recent years. Nevertheless, a three-and-a-half-fold increase over eight years is impressive, so, it's worth looking into where it came from.
(Excerpt) Read more at arstechnica.com ...
I have a book that shows how to lie with statistics.
"Analysis: recent panics over global warming overblown"
Film at 11.
For the tech ping.
I feel certain immortality will be mediated by an extract of danderlions and mud.
I feel certain immortality will be mediated by an extract of danderlions and mud.
The only elements you can use up are radioactive. That’s what makes an element an element , with the exception of sticking it in a nuclear reactor or explosion you can’t change it into anything else!
I’m only aware about one shortage in any mineral that has ever normally been found on Earth in quantity.
Rubies. There are only two ruby mines in the world, and they are both about played out. And only one of the two has the better red-red instead of brown-red rubies.
But, then again, we can synthesize rubies.
Diamonds, even gem quality diamonds, are so common that huge vaults of them exist just to keep the prices up, and they are still mined just to prevent anyone else from mining them. You might as well collect pretty pieces of glass.
And we can synthesize them as well. Hopefully the process will become so cheap that anyone can afford a perfect gem quality diamond the size of a chicken egg. As a paperweight or something.
But natural rubies, if you got them, keep them.
That article about Super Atoms says that ain’t the way it is!
Wonderful book.
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